TLDR
- Barclays upgraded MRVL to Overweight from Equal Weight, raising its price target to $150 from $105.
- The new target represents roughly 31% upside from current levels.
- Barclays projects Marvell’s optical revenue could grow around 90% over the next two years.
- Industry checks suggest AI data center optical ports could double in 2026 and double again in 2027.
- Even in a bear case scenario — stripping out Microsoft and assuming no Amazon growth — Marvell could still hit ~$5 in earnings.
Marvell Technology has had a strong run — the stock has more than doubled over the past 12 months. Now, a fresh upgrade from Barclays is giving it another push.
Marvell Technology, Inc., MRVL
Barclays analyst Thomas O’Malley lifted his rating on MRVL to Overweight from Equal Weight on Thursday, and raised his price target from $105 to $150. That new target implies roughly 31% upside from current levels.
The core of the Barclays thesis isn’t about chips. It’s about optics.
Marvell makes optical components used for connections inside AI data centers. O’Malley wrote in his note: “This story will come down to executing on a well understood and bullish forecast and we think the narrative is shifting more toward Optics where it belongs.”
Industry checks from Barclays suggest optical ports in AI data centers could double in 2026, then double again in 2027. Based on that, the firm expects Marvell’s optical business to grow around 90% over the next two years.
Demand From Big Tech Remains a Key Driver
Even with Broadcom (AVGO) competing in the space, Barclays sees overall demand as strong enough to support growth for both companies.
Barclays also ran a more cautious scenario to test the downside. In that model, the firm removed Microsoft contributions entirely, assumed zero growth from Amazon, and applied lower AI demand assumptions.
Even under those conditions, the firm sees Marvell reaching roughly $5 in earnings — a sign the base business holds up on its own.
Barclays doesn’t expect that bear case to play out. The firm sees Microsoft as a meaningful driver going forward as AI infrastructure continues to build out.
NVLink and Nvidia Could Add More Upside
Barclays also flagged Nvidia and its NVLink platform as a potential tailwind. The firm said recent developments there could support higher usage and stronger growth for Marvell.
MRVL currently holds a Strong Buy consensus rating on TipRanks, based on 23 Buy ratings and four Holds over the last three months.
The average analyst price target sits at $121.75, implying around 6.38% upside from current levels — well below Barclays’ more bullish $150 target.
Marvell stock was up 1.8% at $116.50 in premarket trading on Thursday.
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