TLDR
- Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1% on Monday, leading the S&P 500 and Dow higher after the long holiday weekend
- Tech stocks are recovering after Micron lost 19% last week during a late June chip stock slump
- JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 target, citing the AI supercycle as a key driver for 2026
- The Fed’s June meeting minutes drop Wednesday — the first chaired by new Fed head Kevin Warsh, who has signaled a hawkish stance
- OPEC+ agreed to raise oil output by 188,000 barrels per day in August, pushing crude below $69 a barrel
US stock futures opened higher Monday, with technology leading the way after a long Fourth of July holiday weekend.
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%. Dow futures edged up around 0.1%.
The Dow Jones had closed at an all-time high on Thursday — its 20th record close of the year. All three major indexes ended the shortened holiday week in positive territory.
The tech sector is bouncing back after a rough stretch. Chip stocks took a hit in late June, with Micron losing 19% of its value in a single week.
The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF has fallen 11.4% so far in July, underlining the pressure still on the sector.
Despite the dip, investors seem to be returning to the AI trade. JPMorgan strategists raised their S&P 500 target, pointing to the AI supercycle as a key reason for optimism into the second half of 2026.
Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield told Yahoo Finance he sees the bull market continuing, driven by earnings and liquidity. He said those conditions could carry the market into 2027.
Fed Minutes and Rate Hike Fears in Focus
All eyes turn to Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June policy meeting — the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, who replaced Jerome Powell in late May.
Warsh has reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Markets read that as a hawkish signal.
ING analyst Chris Turner wrote that the minutes will likely deliver a hawkish message, with some Fed members possibly viewing a rate hike as the next move.
The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.461% early Monday, ticking slightly lower from last week.
A weak June jobs report has already shifted rate expectations. Monday’s US services data could add more clarity on the economy’s direction.
Oil Falls After OPEC+ Output Increase
Oil prices fell Monday after OPEC+ agreed to raise output by around 188,000 barrels per day in August.
West Texas Intermediate crude slipped below $69 a barrel. Saudi Arabia is among the countries participating in the increase.
The actual flow of oil will also depend on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been a point of concern.
Lower oil prices could help ease inflation pressures, which remain a key factor in the Fed’s rate decisions.
SK Hynix Eyes Major US Listing
South Korea’s SK Hynix, the world’s second-largest memory chip maker, is looking to raise more than $29 billion by issuing American depositary receipts on the Nasdaq this week.
The move adds to the market storylines in what is otherwise a light week for economic data.
Corporate news is expected to drive headlines alongside the Fed minutes release on Wednesday.
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