TLDR
- HOOD jumped 8.2% to $112.09 on Tuesday, driven by a Bitcoin rebound and rising retail trading activity
- Optimism over a potential repeal of the U.S. day-trading rule boosted sentiment around transaction revenue growth
- Prediction markets are now Robinhood’s fastest-growing business, with Bernstein forecasting volumes could hit $1 trillion annually by 2030
- Q2 earnings beat estimates with EPS of $0.62 vs $0.44 expected, and revenue up 32.5% year over year to $1.31 billion
- Wall Street consensus is Strong Buy with an average price target of $123.58, implying around 10% upside
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) surged 8.2% on Tuesday, closing at $112.09, as a confluence of crypto market momentum, regulatory optimism, and strong business diversification lifted the stock.
Bitcoin briefly crossed $80,000 during the session, reigniting retail appetite for digital assets. That kind of move tends to translate directly into higher trading volumes on Robinhood’s platform, where crypto remains a core revenue driver.
The other big catalyst was renewed hope that U.S. regulators may repeal the long-standing day-trading rule, which restricts how often small accounts can trade. If that rule goes, retail trading volumes could climb sharply, which would be a direct boost to Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue.
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev flagged that the crypto rebound looks healthy. He pointed to lower leverage in the system, stronger ETF inflows, and early signs of returning retail participation. Bitcoin ETFs pulled in roughly $1.9 billion in inflows over the past week, the strongest pace since late 2025.
Dolev specifically called out Robinhood as his top pick in the space, citing its strong retail market share and high operating leverage.
Prediction Markets Adding Fuel
CEO Vlad Tenev has described event contracts as Robinhood’s fastest-growing business line. Bernstein projects prediction market trading volume could reach around $240 billion in 2026 and potentially scale to nearly $1 trillion annually by 2030.
That kind of growth trajectory is drawing serious investor attention. Robinhood is also moving into tokenized stock trading and has launched Robinhood Ventures Fund II, giving retail investors access to early-stage private companies.
The stock’s 50-day moving average now sits at $101.13, and HOOD has pushed well above it, reinforcing the near-term bullish trend.
Earnings Beat Backs the Move
Robinhood’s most recent quarterly results, reported July 29, gave investors something concrete to hold onto. The company posted EPS of $0.62, well ahead of the $0.44 consensus. Revenue came in at $1.31 billion, up 32.5% year over year and slightly above the $1.29 billion estimate. Net margin hit 42.01%.
Analysts currently forecast full-year EPS of $2.03 for Robinhood.
Sanford C. Bernstein raised its price target to $160 in July, assigning an outperform rating. Deutsche Bank lifted its target to $113 with a buy rating. The current consensus across 21 analysts sits at Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $120.52.
On the insider front, Director Meyer Malka purchased 250,000 shares at $80.74 in June. CEO Vladimir Tenev sold 375,000 shares at $116.17 in July under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan.
Wall Street’s Strong Buy consensus, based on 15 buy ratings and three holds over the past three months, carries an average price target of $123.58.
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