TLDR
- Samsung is expected to report Q2 operating profit of around 86 trillion won (~$56B), up roughly 18x year-over-year
- DRAM prices rose ~44% and NAND prices rose ~53% quarter-on-quarter in Q2
- Samsung stock is up more than 155% this year but dropped nearly 9% last week
- A large employee bonus provision could reduce the headline profit figure
- Analysts see another 52% upside in Samsung stock over the next 12 months
Samsung Electronics is set to report preliminary second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, and Wall Street is watching closely. The world’s largest memory chipmaker by sales is expected to post operating profit of around 86 trillion won ($56.35 billion), an 18-fold jump from 4.7 trillion won a year earlier.
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., SMSD.L
That figure is based on an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 30 analysts. Revenue is forecast to surge 127% to a record 169 trillion won.
If confirmed, it would be Samsung’s third straight quarter of record operating profit.
The driver is no mystery: AI. Booming demand for memory chips used in AI infrastructure has pushed prices sharply higher and kept supply tight. Average DRAM selling prices climbed more than 44% in Q2 quarter-on-quarter, while NAND prices jumped over 53%, according to Citi Research and HSBC data.
The gains aren’t limited to high-bandwidth memory. Demand for conventional DRAM and NAND has also picked up as agentic AI — systems that handle complex, multi-step tasks — requires more memory and storage than earlier AI applications.
Employee Bonuses Could Dent the Headline Number
There’s a catch. In May, Samsung reached a wage deal with workers that sets aside 10.5% of the semiconductor division’s operating profit for special bonuses. Some analysts estimate total bonus provisions could exceed 40 trillion won. How Samsung books that in Q2 could weigh on the reported figure.
So while the profit trajectory looks strong, the quarterly number could come in below consensus depending on the timing of that accounting recognition.
Samsung stock has had a wild ride lately. It’s up more than 155% this year, but lost nearly 9% in just five sessions last week — its worst stretch since late March — as global chip stocks swung sharply on concerns over AI capex sustainability and rising competition.
The 30-day volatility for Bloomberg’s top 20 semiconductor stocks gauge has hit its highest level since 2020.
Despite the turbulence, Samsung’s valuation remains relatively modest. The stock trades at just 5.7 times its 12-month forward earnings, near the lowest level in data going back to 2007. That’s below Micron’s 7x multiple and well under the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s nearly 24x.
What Analysts Are Saying
Citigroup raised its price target on Samsung to 530,000 won from 460,000 won on July 2 — 71% above Friday’s close. The bank said memory fundamentals remain intact and server DRAM pricing continues to hold up on strong CPU demand.
The average analyst price target tracked by Bloomberg implies 52% upside over the next 12 months.
Nomura expects commodity DRAM prices to rise another 24% in Q3 and NAND prices to climb 25%, supported by data center and consumer demand.
Samsung and SK Hynix have pledged a combined 3,200 trillion won to expand chip capacity in South Korea through 2040. Separately, Anthropic is in talks with Samsung about a custom AI chip manufacturing partnership, according to the Information.
Samsung’s detailed results are expected later in July.
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