TLDR
- SpaceX stock fell 1% pre-market Friday to $151.46, extending a 24% drop over six trading sessions since its June 12 IPO
- The stock briefly dipped below $150, a price level it has never closed below since opening at that price on debut day
- SpaceX will be added to the Russell 1000 index after Friday’s close, classified as 90.4% growth and 9.6% value
- Passive index funds tracking Russell indexes will need to buy an estimated $3 billion worth of SpaceX stock, per Jefferies
- SpaceX is also set to join the Nasdaq 100 in July, which would force large funds like the Invesco QQQ ETF to buy in
SpaceX (SPCX) stock slipped 1% to $151.46 in pre-market trading on Friday, briefly dipping below $150 — a level it has never closed below since its June 12 IPO opened at exactly that price.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp, SPCX
The move extends a brutal stretch for the stock. Since its intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, SPCX has fallen roughly 24% over six trading sessions through Thursday’s close at $153.
The selloff comes as investors have pulled back on high-valuation AI and tech plays. SpaceX lost $4.9 billion last year, and the stock now trades at 107 times its 2025 sales. For comparison, Nvidia trades at around 21 times sales.
That gap in valuation has drawn scrutiny. The scale of the drop was enough to cost CEO Elon Musk his trillionaire status.
OpenAI is also reportedly rethinking the timing of its own IPO following SpaceX’s turbulent debut, according to The New York Times, citing people familiar with the matter.
Russell 1000 Addition Could Drive Demand
Despite the recent weakness, Friday brings a potential catalyst. SpaceX is set to be added to the Russell 1000 index after the closing bell, as part of FTSE Russell’s semi-annual index reconstitution.
FTSE Russell relaxed its rules earlier this year to fast-track large IPOs into its indexes. SpaceX will enter classified as 90.4% growth and 9.6% value, with a re-evaluation scheduled for December.
The addition matters because passive funds that track Russell indexes — like the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB) — are required to hold SpaceX stock once it joins. Jefferies estimates those funds will need to purchase nearly $3 billion worth of SPCX to match their benchmarks.
That buying is expected to be concentrated in a narrow window near market close on Friday, as fund managers try to limit tracking error. Options markets are pricing in a move of roughly 3.6% in either direction by end of day.
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Picture
SpaceX is also expected to be added to the Nasdaq 100 in July. That would require large funds including the Invesco QQQ ETF to pick up the stock as well, adding another layer of index-driven demand.
The S&P 500 remains off the table for now. S&P Global blocked SpaceX’s inclusion after declining to change its profitability criteria for megacap IPOs. To qualify, a company must be profitable in its most recent quarter and across the trailing four quarters — a bar SpaceX currently does not clear.
SpaceX’s market cap sits at around $2 trillion, putting it roughly in Amazon’s range. However, only about $100 billion of that is in publicly traded stock, with the rest held by Musk, insiders, and employees.
The Tesla S&P 500 addition in 2020 triggered a closing squeeze that sent that stock up 6% on the day.
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