TLDR
- SPCX fell 2.6% to $139.65 on Wednesday ahead of a 319 million share lock-up expiry on August 20.
- Chinese startup LandSpace successfully landed an orbital-class rocket booster for the first time, narrowing SpaceX’s competitive edge.
- The August 6 unlock of 911.5 million shares was absorbed well, with the stock rising 6%.
- Larger unlocks are still ahead, including a 1.3 billion-share tranche around Q3 earnings in November and a 180-day expiry in December.
- CEO Elon Musk’s 6.42 billion shares remain locked until June 2027.
SpaceX stock dropped 2.6% to $139.65 on Wednesday, pressured by two separate events: a looming share unlock and a milestone from a Chinese rocket competitor.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The stock had only just clawed back above its $135 IPO price on August 10, the first close above the offering price since mid-July. Wednesday’s drop pulled it back toward that level.
The immediate trigger for the selloff was the upcoming Day 70 lock-up expiry on August 20. Around 319 million shares held by early employees and investors become eligible for sale on that date.
This is the second tranche in a staggered unlock schedule that will eventually release around 88% of SpaceX’s 13 billion shares through 2027.
The first tranche hit on August 6, when up to 911.5 million shares became tradable. That unlock effectively doubled SpaceX’s public float. Despite the scale of that release, the stock absorbed it and rose 6%.
Lock-up expirations matter because they increase the supply of available stock. More supply, all else equal, tends to push prices lower.
China’s Rocket Moment
On Tuesday, Chinese startup LandSpace landed the first stage of its Zhuque-3 rocket at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Pilot Zone in northwest China. It was the first time a Chinese company has recovered an orbital-class booster on land.
The Zhuque-3 is a 216-foot rocket capable of lifting 40,350 pounds to low earth orbit. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 stands 230 feet tall and can lift 50,265 pounds. LandSpace’s rocket also delivered satellites to orbit on just its second flight.
SpaceX has landed boosters more than 600 times since 2015. LandSpace has now done it once. The competitive gap remains wide, but it is no longer zero.
What’s Still Ahead
The bigger tests for SPCX stock are still to come. A 1.3 billion-share tranche is set to unlock around SpaceX’s Q3 earnings in early November.
That is followed by the 180-day post-IPO expiry in December, which represents another large wave of potential selling pressure.
Elon Musk’s 6.42 billion shares remain fully locked until June 2027.
Separately, AI coding startup Cognition AI denied it was in talks with SpaceX regarding a potential acquisition, removing one speculative angle from the stock.
SpaceX closed Wednesday at $139.65, with a slight overnight gain of 0.11% to $139.81.
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