TLDR
- Wedbush analyst Dan Ives launched SpaceX coverage with a Buy rating and a $190 price target, valuing the company at $2.5 trillion.
- Ives values SpaceX’s AI business at ~$1.8 trillion and Starlink at ~$600 billion.
- Starship is described as both the biggest value driver and the biggest risk â it has only been tested 12 times.
- SpaceX stock has dropped ~27% from its post-IPO high of $225.64, trading around $171.
- The stock still trades at roughly 115x last year’s revenue, with net losses expected to grow this year.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock is trading around $171, down roughly 27% from its post-IPO high of $225.64 hit on June 16, just days after the company went public on June 12.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Despite the pullback, Wall Street coverage is building fast. Around 12 analysts currently cover SPCX. That number is expected to jump to nearly 50 within weeks.
The latest call comes from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who launched coverage Tuesday evening with a Buy rating and a $190 price target.
Ives puts the total value of SpaceX at $2.5 trillion, using a sum-of-the-parts model that breaks out the launch business, Starlink, and AI separately.
He values the launch business at roughly $66 billion. Starlink, which now has over 10 million subscribers and is profitable, comes in at around $600 billion.
The AI business is where Ives sees the most value â $1.8 trillion. He projects the AI unit will generate more than $80 billion in sales by 2028, before any orbital data centers are operational.
Starship: The Biggest Bet
Ives is direct about where the risk lies. Starship, SpaceX’s next-generation rocket, is designed to cut the cost of reaching orbit by 90% compared to Falcon 9.
That cost reduction is central to almost every forward-looking bet on SpaceX â next-gen Starlink satellites, orbital AI computing, the Artemis lunar lander. But the vehicle has only completed 12 test flights. The 13th is expected in the coming weeks.
“The vehicle is the single largest source of value in the franchise as much as its largest risk,” Ives wrote.
Of the 12 analysts currently covering SPCX, seven have Buy ratings. The average price target across the group sits at around $240 â well above where the stock is trading now.
Valuation Still Stretched
Even after the pullback, SpaceX carries a market cap of roughly $2.16â$2.3 trillion. That’s around 115 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion.
Revenue grew 33% last year, and growth could pick up further in 2026 as new AI contracts, broader Starlink adoption, and launch services expand.
But the company posted a net loss of approximately $4.9 billion in 2025. The AI division drove most of that. With heavy infrastructure spending continuing, losses are expected to grow in 2026.
Ives is no stranger to big calls. He also covers Tesla (TSLA) with a Buy rating and a Street-high $600 price target.
SpaceX stock was up 1.8% in premarket trading Wednesday at $173.95, with the S&P 500 and Dow futures both pointing lower.
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