TLDR
- SpaceX stock rose about 1% in Monday premarket trading as a Nasdaq-100 rebalance took effect.
- SpaceX’s index weighting increased to 2.82% from about 1.28%.
- TipRanks estimates the change could trigger $15.5 billion to $22 billion of passive fund buying.
- SpaceX recently received a $946 million NASA contract covering three additional crew missions.
- The company remains in focus ahead of its next Starship test, adding another event for investors to watch.
SpaceX (SPCX) stock rose about 1% in Monday premarket trading as a major Nasdaq-100 rebalance took effect. The stock was trading around $153 after finishing Friday at $152.71.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The main catalyst is SpaceX’s increased weighting in the Nasdaq-100. Bloomberg reported that its weight has risen to 2.82% from about 1.28%.
That means funds designed to track the Nasdaq-100 need to increase their SpaceX exposure. TipRanks estimates the adjustment could create between $15.5 billion and $22 billion of passive buying.
SpaceX entered the index in July, shortly after its IPO. Its original weighting was restrained because Nasdaq adjusts exposure based partly on free float, meaning the amount of stock available to public investors.
Nasdaq-100 Rebalance Lifts SpaceX Weight
More SpaceX stock has become available following the expiration of post-IPO lockups. That has allowed the company’s index weighting to rise more closely toward its market value.
The jump from 1.28% to 2.82% means SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 presence has more than doubled. The revised weighting officially takes effect Monday.
Index funds do not buy based on a company’s earnings outlook or valuation. They adjust holdings to match changes made by the index they track.
That creates mechanical demand when a company’s weighting increases. The exact amount purchased can vary depending on fund flows, tracking methods and when managers complete their adjustments.
SpaceX stock has recently climbed back above its $150 IPO opening price. It remains more than 10% below where it traded at the start of July, according to Barron’s.
NASA Contract Adds Another Recent Catalyst
The index change follows a new $946 million NASA award announced Sept. 18. NASA added three SpaceX crew missions under its Commercial Crew Transportation Capability contract.
The missions are Crew-15, Crew-16 and Crew-17, with readiness dates in 2027 and 2028. The award lifts the total value of SpaceX’s contract under the program to $5.92 billion.
NASA said the contract covers ground operations, launch, in-orbit services, return and recovery, cargo transportation and emergency lifeboat capability. The contract period runs through 2030.
SpaceX also received another NASA award last week to launch the StarBurst science satellite. That mission is planned for no earlier than 2028 aboard a Falcon 9.
Attention is also turning to upcoming Starship testing. SpaceX’s operational progress remains another near-term factor being watched alongside the Nasdaq-100 rebalance.
For Monday, however, the confirmed market catalyst is the index adjustment. SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 weighting is now 2.82%, more than double its previous level of roughly 1.28%.
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