TLDR
- Tesla reports third-quarter delivery numbers on Friday, with Wall Street looking for around 460,000 vehicles.
- The company-compiled consensus of 451,000 deliveries would mark a 9% drop from last year’s third quarter.
- Tesla secured $30 billion in new credit facilities on September 29, giving it more borrowing capacity without issuing new stock.
- StoneX reiterated a Buy rating and $475 price target, while Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating with a $485 target.
- Tesla stock traded near $357 in premarket Thursday, up slightly ahead of the delivery report.
Tesla stock (TSLA) sat near $357 in premarket trading Thursday, a small gain ahead of Friday’s third-quarter delivery report. The number everyone’s watching: Wall Street wants around 460,000 vehicles delivered.
Tesla’s own compiled consensus, built from more than two dozen brokers, points to about 451,000 deliveries. That would be a 9% drop from the roughly 497,000 cars delivered in the same quarter last year.
Last year’s number got a boost from a now-expired tax credit. The $7,500 federal EV purchase credit disappeared in September 2025, and that pushed buyers to rush their purchases before the deadline.
One fund manager, Gary Black of One Global ETF, put his own estimate at 470,000. His read on the regions: China soft, the U.S. solid, Europe okay.
China remains the tough spot. Demand growth has slowed there, government support has pulled back, and price competition is brutal.
The U.S. picture looks a bit brighter for Tesla. With the tax credit gone, other automakers are selling fewer EVs, which works in Tesla’s favor.
Competitors Feel the Pinch Too
General Motors sold 670,974 vehicles of all types in the U.S. during the third quarter. That’s down 6% year over year.
GM’s EV sales took a bigger hit, falling more than 60% to roughly 25,000 units. The tax credit expiration clearly didn’t just affect Tesla.
Delivery numbers used to move Tesla stock a lot. These days, investors care more about the company’s AI bets.
That means robo-taxis and robots. Tesla launched its robo-taxi service in Austin back in June 2025, though scaling it up has gone slower than hoped.
On the robot side, Tesla recently pulled the plug on Model S and X production. That freed up space at its Fremont plant for building Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot. Investors still haven’t seen the updated version.
Cars still pay the bills, though. Tesla needs the cash from vehicle sales to fund its AI ambitions, and the spending plans are steep.
A War Chest for the Road Ahead
Tesla plans to spend about $25 billion on new plants and equipment in 2026. That’s up sharply from roughly $8.5 billion in 2025.
To help fund that, Tesla secured $30 billion in new credit facilities on September 29. The package breaks down into a $20 billion three-year term loan, an $8 billion five-year revolver, and a $2 billion 364-day revolver.
Citigroup is handling the term loan, with Wells Fargo on both revolvers. None of the facilities are drawn yet, and Tesla doesn’t expect to tap them in 2026.
StoneX analyst Mickey Legg called the move proactive funding ahead of Tesla’s expanding investment program. The firm kept its Buy rating and $475 price target on the stock.
Cantor Fitzgerald also stayed bullish, reiterating an Overweight rating with a $485 price target. The firm pointed to a U.S. truck driver shortage as a possible demand driver for Tesla’s autonomous trucking plans down the line.
Tesla also has smaller updates rolling in from overseas. Croatia approved Tesla’s supervised Full Self-Driving system, joining the Netherlands, Belgium, and Slovenia on the list of European countries allowing the tech.
Not every regulator is on board, though. The European Transport Safety Council has pushed the EU to reject two speed-related features in the FSD system, arguing they break a United Nations regulation.
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