TLDR
- Tesla stock is down 15.32% year to date, trading around $309, while the S&P 500 is up 9%
- Q2 EPS came in at $0.33, missing the $0.50 consensus estimate; revenue of $28.24B beat expectations
- Wedbush’s Dan Ives maintains a $600 price target, citing FSD monetization, Robotaxi, and Optimus scaling
- Prediction markets give only a 16% chance Optimus launches in 2026, pressuring Tesla’s 167x forward P/E
- Wall Street consensus sits at Hold with an average target of $402.24 across 47 analysts
Tesla (TSLA) stock opened at $309.23 on Tuesday, extending a rough 2026 so far. The stock is down 15.32% year to date and has fallen 6.6% in the past week alone.
That compares poorly to the S&P 500, which is up 9% over the same period. Ford gained 11% and GM has held up better too, suggesting the pressure on Tesla is company-specific rather than sector-wide.
Q2 earnings, released July 22nd, did little to calm investors. Tesla reported EPS of $0.33, missing the $0.50 consensus estimate by $0.17. Revenue came in at $28.24 billion, up 25.5% year over year and ahead of the $26.42 billion expected.
Operating profit for the quarter was approximately $400 million, well below the roughly $1.7 billion analysts had penciled in. Capital expenditure was higher and margins remained under pressure.
Tesla’s stock now trades at a 167x forward P/E. That multiple only holds if the market believes in the timeline for autonomous products and robotics. Right now, that belief is shaky.
What the Bulls Are Betting On
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has a $600 price target on Tesla, implying around 85% upside from current levels. His bull case goes to $700. His thesis centers on Full Self-Driving subscription monetization, the Robotaxi network, internal chip production, and Optimus scaling toward 1 million robots per year at Fremont.
He is not backing down. But the broader Wall Street picture is more mixed.
Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 are on Hold, and 4 have a Sell rating.
The average target price is $402.24. Bank of America has a Buy with a $460 target. Morningstar considers it fairly valued at $450. Morgan Stanley cut its target from $417 to $400 and rates it equal weight.
Execution Risk Is Real
Prediction markets are more skeptical. Polymarket traders put just a 16% probability on Optimus launching in 2026, and only 19% on Tesla running robotaxis in California by year-end.
These are the two products propping up the current valuation. If either timeline slips, the multiple comes under serious pressure.
On the institutional side, Empowered Funds raised its Tesla position by 15.9% in Q1, adding 24,983 units to bring its total to 182,356. Hedge funds and institutional investors collectively own 66.20% of the stock.
On the insider side, Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 units in late April at $378.11. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 units in June at $402.20, though that sale was tied to tax obligations on equity vesting.
Tesla’s 50-day moving average stands at $398.72 and the 200-day sits at $401.32. The stock is currently trading below both. Its one-year range is $297.82 to $498.83.
Analysts are watching FSD v14.3 uptake, Cybercab pilot production, and the AI5 chip, whose tape-out completed in April, for signs the product roadmap is on track.
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