TLDR
- Tesla stock is down 27% year-to-date, trading around $326-$327, while the S&P 500 is up 13%
- Q2 EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.50 consensus estimate; revenue of $28.24 billion beat estimates
- Operating margins fell to around 1.4% and free cash flow turned negative
- Analyst consensus is “Hold” with an average price target of $401.74
- SpaceX purchased nearly $300 million of Tesla Megapacks, providing a rare positive signal
Tesla stock opened at $327.51 on Thursday after snapping a four-day winning streak. The stock slipped 0.4% to $326.26 ahead of Thursday’s open, a day after dropping 1.6%.
The year has been rough. TSLA is down 27% in 2026 while the S&P 500 has gained 13% over the same period. The 1-year low sits at $297.38, with a high of $498.83.
The trouble started building with Q2 earnings on July 22nd. Tesla reported EPS of $0.33, missing the $0.50 consensus by $0.17. Revenue came in at $28.24 billion, up 25.5% year over year and ahead of the $26.42 billion estimate. But on the bottom line, the miss was hard to ignore.
Price cuts continue to eat into margins. Operating margins fell to around 1.4%, free cash flow turned negative, and capital expenditures are tracking above $25 billion.
Analyst Sentiment
Wall Street is split. The current consensus rating is “Hold” with an average price target of $401.74. That breaks down to 21 Buy ratings, 19 Holds, and 4 Sells, with one Strong Buy in the mix.
Wedbush stands out with an “outperform” rating and a $600 price target. On the other end, Phillip Securities has a “sell” rating and a $215 target. BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock from “hold” to “underperform” in June.
The Robotaxi rollout is a sticking point for many analysts. Investor Gary Black has flagged that slowing Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi timelines are eroding investor confidence.
Energy Business Offers a Bright Spot
Not everything is pointing down. SpaceX bought nearly $300 million worth of Tesla Megapacks for AI data-center infrastructure. That’s a meaningful demand signal for Tesla’s energy storage business, which has been one of the few growth areas holding up against weaker auto profitability.
Tesla is also planning a potential $10 billion solar panel factory in Texas. In Japan, Tesla is expanding its delivery network by 60% on stronger sales. July data out of China suggested some stabilization, even as the broader passenger car market remains weak.
A recall is also in the picture. Tesla recalled 20,349 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles for excessively bright low-beam headlights.
On the institutional side, Annex Advisory Services boosted its Tesla position by 78.8% in Q2, bringing its holding to 7,547 units valued at around $3.17 million. Institutional investors collectively own 66.2% of the company. Insiders own 19.9%, though CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 units in June at $402.20, reducing his stake by 10.57%.
Tesla carries a P/E ratio of 303.25 and a market cap of $1.29 trillion. Analysts project full-year EPS of $0.88. The 50-day moving average sits at $373.32, well above the current price.
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