TLDR
- U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% forecast.
- Core inflation rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point hike should be considered in December.
- Traders now see an 11.7% chance of a 50-basis-point hike.
- Bitcoin fell about 2% to near $73,274, and Ether dropped nearly 5%.
U.S. consumer prices rose faster than expected in October. The Consumer Price Index gained 0.4% from September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.3%.
BREAKING: October CPI inflation rises +0.4% month-over-month, above expectations of +0.3%.
Core CPI inflation rose +0.3%, also above expectations of +0.2%.
BLS will not be releasing year-over-year figures due to the October 2025 government shutdown.
Inflation still appears to…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 10, 2026
The October gain was smaller than September’s 0.6% rise. Even so, inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy costs, rose 0.3%. That matched September’s pace but beat the forecast of 0.2%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish a year-over-year figure. There was no October 2025 report to compare against because of the government shutdown at that time.
What Waller Said Before the Report
The data came just hours after Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke in London. He said another core reading of 0.3% or higher could lead the Fed to consider a bigger move in December.
“In that case, I believe a 50-basis-point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting,” Waller said. He added that a 25-basis-point hike would put the Fed’s credibility at risk.
The Fed’s benchmark rate currently stands at 3.75% to 4.00%. The central bank raised it by a quarter point in September and left it unchanged in October.
Markets had already expected a quarter-point hike in December. CME FedWatch data showed an 88.3% chance of that outcome. It also showed an 11.7% chance of a half-point increase.
Jeff Anderson, head of U.S. at crypto trading firm STS Digital, said markets are now pricing in about 27 basis points of tightening. He said the prospect of another hike is becoming hard to ignore.
Markets React
Treasury yields moved higher after Waller’s comments. The 10-year yield rose 6.5 basis points to 4.93%. The two-year yield climbed 14 basis points to 4.69%.
Stock index futures turned lower after the report. The Nasdaq 100 was down 1.15%, and the S&P 500 was off 0.5%.
Bitcoin traded near $73,274, down about 2% over 24 hours. Ether fell nearly 5% to around $2,028, and Solana dropped 5.6% to $82.
Total crypto market value fell 1.6% to $2.57 trillion, according to CoinGecko. Experts said higher borrowing costs could hurt investors who use leverage.
Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, explained how some crypto strategies work. “Carry strategies earn the gap between what their assets yield and what they pay to borrow,” he said. Those strategies are squeezed when borrowing costs rise.
He noted that the rate paid to USDC lenders on Aave’s main market ranged from about 3.2% to 7% over the past two weeks. Three-month Treasury yields stayed near 4.2% in that time.
The report also arrived one week after the U.S. midterm elections, in which Democrats won control of the House and Senate. Anderson said a Democratic Congress could add political pressure to bring inflation down.
He also said he doubts that more rate hikes would fix the root causes of inflation. Congress does not set interest rates.
The CLARITY Act, a bill meant to create clearer U.S. crypto rules, has been stalled since January. Lawmakers from both parties have disagreed over its terms.
The Fed holds its final meeting of the year in December.
