TLDR
- JPMorgan cut Coinbase’s December 2026 price target to $290 from $399 ahead of Thursday earnings, citing weaker crypto trading volumes and slower USDC growth
- COIN stock has plunged over 50% since bitcoin’s October peak above $126,000, down 27% in 2026 alone
- JPMorgan projects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, down from $801 million in Q3, with spot trading volume of $263 billion
- CFO Alesia Haas sold $56.5 million in stock on February 6 under a pre-arranged trading plan to cover tax obligations
- Multiple analysts expect subscription and services revenue to miss guidance of $710-$790 million due to softer crypto prices and lower staking yields
Coinbase faces mounting pressure as analysts slash price targets and the crypto exchange prepares to report fourth-quarter earnings after the market close on Thursday. The company’s stock has dropped 27% in 2026 alone.
JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington cut his December 2026 price target to $290 from $399. Despite the reduction, he maintains an Overweight rating. His new target still implies 75% upside from COIN’s current price of $165.
The crypto market downturn has hit Coinbase particularly hard. The stock has plunged more than 50% since bitcoin’s early October record above $126,000.
Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million for Q4. That represents a sharp drop from $801 million in the third quarter. Lower trading volumes and weaker crypto prices are the main culprits.
Analysts Lower Expectations Across the Board
The JPMorgan analyst estimates spot crypto trading volume of $263 billion for the quarter. He also pointed to lower USDC in circulation, modeling stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million.
Deribit provides some offset. Coinbase acquired the crypto derivatives exchange in August. JPMorgan expects Deribit to contribute about $117 million on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume.
Total transaction revenue is projected at $1.06 billion. That’s only slightly above the previous quarter’s $1 billion, even with a full quarter of Deribit contributions.
The subscription and services segment faces challenges too. JPMorgan expects revenue of $670 million. That falls below Coinbase’s prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million.
Softer crypto prices, lower staking yields and slower USDC growth are weighing on this segment. Worthington expects operating expenses to come in below guidance as the company cuts costs.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish sits roughly 10% below consensus on adjusted EBITDA. He’s particularly cautious on retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue.
Barclays estimates Coinbase exchange volume of about $261 billion in the quarter. Budish noted that Robinhood’s reported retail crypto volumes fell about 15% quarter over quarter. Those volumes have historically tracked closely with Coinbase’s performance.
CFO Executes Major Stock Sale
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel struck a more bearish tone. He expects disappointment in the subscription and services segment. Engel also anticipates January trading revenue to reflect Coinbase’s weakest retail engagement since Q3 2024.
“While investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to affirm overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel wrote.
CFO Alesia Haas sold $56.5 million in Class A Common Stock on February 6. The sales involved 362,600 shares at prices ranging from $152.10 to $156.72.
The transactions were executed under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan. The sales covered exercise price, commissions, fees and estimated tax obligations related to stock option exercises.
On the same day, Haas exercised options to acquire 78,433 shares at $18.13 per share. She also exercised options to acquire 617,668 shares at $6.97 per share. An additional 617,668 shares of Class B Common Stock were converted into Class A Common Stock.
Investors will focus on management’s commentary regarding trading activity in early 2026. The sustainability of USDC-related income and whether Deribit can offset swings in spot crypto markets remain key questions. The earnings call is scheduled for Thursday after market close.
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