TLDR
- HPQ jumped 15% last week after Lenovo posted a blowout quarter with ~40% of revenue from AI products
- JPMorgan raised its price target but kept a Neutral rating, walking back its October 2026 downgrade
- Options traders are pricing in a 9.8% swing when HP reports fiscal Q2 results on May 27
- Analysts expect revenue of ~$14 billion (up 7.2% YoY) and EPS of $0.71, flat year-over-year
- Wall Street consensus sits at Moderate Sell — 4 Holds, 4 Sells — with an average price target of $18.75
HP Inc. jumped 15% last Friday. Not because of anything HP did — because of what Lenovo did.
Lenovo, the world’s largest PC maker, posted its fastest revenue growth in five years. Nearly 40 cents of every dollar it earned came from AI-related products. That’s the number that moved HPQ.
HP and Lenovo sell to the same enterprise buyers, ship through the same channels, and chase the same upgrade cycles. When Lenovo prints a quarter like that, the market assumes HP is sitting on similar demand.
That assumption cost investors real money to act on.
JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee had actually raised his price target on HPQ the week before Lenovo even reported. He kept his Neutral rating in place. Back in October 2025, he had downgraded the stock, warning the Windows 10 refresh boom was nearly done and HP would face tough comparisons in 2026.
The new target is him quietly walking that call back — not reversing it, just softening it.
Other desks are split. Morgan Stanley also nudged its target higher. Bank of America stayed negative and warned HP could cut its full-year guidance when it reports Wednesday.
What Analysts Are Watching on May 27
HP reports fiscal Q2 results after the close on May 27. The Street expects revenue of about $14 billion, a 7.2% increase year-over-year. EPS is seen at $0.71, flat compared to the same quarter last year.
HP has only beaten earnings estimates in four of the past eight quarters.
The number that really matters isn’t the headline beat or miss — it’s the AI PC mix. Last quarter, roughly one in three PCs HP shipped had a dedicated neural processing chip. If that ratio moved higher this quarter, particularly on the commercial side, the story changes.
If it stalled, Friday’s rally was a head fake.
Options traders are treating the report as a binary event. The implied move priced into the options market is 9.8%. That’s not a small number for a stock like HPQ.
The Valuation Case Bears Keep Ignoring
HPQ trades at a single-digit forward earnings multiple and pays a dividend yield close to 5%. The S&P 500 yields roughly 1.05%.
A stock yielding nearly four times the index is one the market has given up on growing. Over the past 12 months, the S&P 500 is up about 27%. HPQ is down roughly 24% over the same stretch. Even after the 15% Friday surge, HPQ is still down about 5% year-to-date.
The valuation setup means a re-rating doesn’t need a blowout quarter. It just needs a reason to doubt the bear case.
Five things bulls need from Wednesday’s print: AI PC mix up quarter-over-quarter, commercial demand holding firm, margins not crushed by memory cost inflation, U.S. market share stabilizing after a recent slip, and full-year guidance left intact.
Miss two of those, the rally fades. Hit four, and JPMorgan’s price target looks too low.
Wall Street’s current consensus on HPQ is Moderate Sell, with an average price target of $18.75 — implying 25.7% upside from current levels.
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