TLDR
- Nebius stock surged 8.7% to a new all-time high of $259.23 after hedge fund Situational Awareness LP disclosed a 5.6% ownership stake via a 13G SEC filing.
- The fund is run by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher who founded Situational Awareness LP in 2024 on the thesis that AI will drive explosive demand for compute infrastructure.
- Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year, with AI Cloud revenue alone jumping 841% to $389.7 million.
- Nebius has raised its 2026 capex target to $20ā$25 billion, backed by contracts worth $27 billion with Meta and $19.4 billion with Microsoft.
- Citigroup carries a $287 price target on the stock and BNP Paribas Exane initiated with a neutral rating and a $255 target.
Nebius Group (NBIS) stock hit a new all-time high of $259.23 on June 1, 2026, surging 8.7% in morning trading while the broader market barely moved. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq were each down about 0.2% on the day, meaning NBIS outpaced the index by roughly 8.8 percentage points on company-specific news alone.
The catalyst was a 13G SEC filing from Situational Awareness LP disclosing a purchase of 12.4 million Nebius shares, representing a 5.6% stake in the company. The fund was launched in 2024 by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI Superalignment researcher. His thesis: rapid advances in AI will drive explosive demand for chips, data centers, and compute infrastructure.
The disclosure carried weight precisely because of who is behind it. Aschenbrenner is a known figure in AI circles, and a concentrated bet of this size on a single neocloud stock signals high conviction.
Institutional interest in Nebius has been building for months. Forsta AP Fonden opened a new position worth around $3.98 million in Q4. Millennium Management added a stake valued at roughly $11.6 million in Q1. Royal Bank of Canada and UBS Asset Management also entered in Q1. Hedge funds and institutional investors now own 21.9% of the company.
Record Quarterly Numbers
The institutional interest is backed by hard numbers. In Q1 2026, Nebius reported consolidated revenue of $399 million, a 684% jump year over year. Its core AI Cloud business generated $389.7 million, up 841%. Annualized run-rate revenue hit $1.92 billion by the end of March.
Adjusted EBITDA swung into positive territory at $129.5 million. EPS came in at -$0.23 versus the consensus estimate of -$0.77, a $0.54 beat. Revenue also topped the $375.13 million estimate.
The company has a 12-month high of $278.84 and a 12-month low of $35.72, a range that tells its own story about how fast the AI infrastructure trade has moved.
Capex and Analyst Targets
Nebius is not standing still. It raised its 2026 capex target to $20ā$25 billion, underpinned by a $27 billion contract with Meta Platforms and a $19.4 billion deal with Microsoft. The company has also said it is targeting roughly 540% data center revenue growth by year-end.
Citigroup has a $287 price target ā the highest on the Street. Citizens JMP sits at $270. BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage this week with a neutral rating and a $255 target. The stock’s consensus rating sits at Moderate Buy with an average price target of $188.31, though that figure has been running well behind where the stock is actually trading.
Not all news has been clean. Insider Andrey Korolenko sold 500,000 shares on May 13 at an average of $203.24, totaling roughly $101.6 million ā a 46% reduction in his position. Director Elena Bunina also sold around 10,894 shares that same day, cutting her stake by 50%.
Co-founder and Chief Business Officer Roman Chernin was scheduled to host a fireside chat at the BofA Securities tech conference on June 3.
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