TLDR
- Apple’s global smartphone market share hit a record 20% in Q2 2026, even as overall industry shipments fell 11% YoY to their lowest level since 2013.
- Apple was the only major smartphone maker that did not raise prices despite soaring memory costs.
- Morgan Stanley raised its AAPL price target to $360, citing strong pricing power and AI roadmap; Monness maintained a Buy with a $335 target.
- Monness expects Apple to report Q3 FY2026 revenue of $109.42 billion and EPS of $1.95, both above Street consensus.
- AAPL was trading around $313.95–$317.31, approaching its 52-week high of $323.45.
Apple hit a record 20% global smartphone market share in Q2 2026, according to Counterpoint Research — and it did it while the rest of the industry was struggling to stay upright.
Global smartphone shipments dropped 11% year over year in Q2, the weakest second quarter since 2013. The culprit: a worsening shortage of DRAM and NAND memory that has pushed up production costs and, in turn, consumer prices. Apple’s shipments rose 3% YoY during the same period.
AAPL was trading at $313.95 in premarket Tuesday, down about 1%, but still close to its 52-week high of $323.45.
The iPhone 17 lineup drove Apple’s outperformance, remaining the world’s top-shipped smartphone family for the quarter. Apple also stood out by holding its prices steady — every other major manufacturer raised handset prices in response to the memory crunch.
China was the one soft spot. Apple’s shipments in that market declined year over year, even with promotions timed around the 618 shopping festival. Older iPhone models also saw weaker demand as component allocations shifted toward newer devices.
Samsung reclaimed the top spot in overall global shipments with a 24% market share, boosted by Galaxy S26 sales and aggressive promotions. Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo each posted double-digit shipment declines, their exposure to lower-priced devices making them especially vulnerable to rising memory costs.
Wall Street Raises Targets
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring raised his price target on AAPL to $360, keeping a Buy rating. His thesis centers on Apple’s pricing power — he argues that demand for iPhone, Mac, and iPad is relatively inelastic, meaning Apple can raise prices without meaningfully hurting unit sales.
Woodring expects a sizable price increase on upcoming iPhone models, which he believes could add measurable upside to near-term and FY2027 earnings per share.
Monness, Crespi, Hardt also maintained a Buy rating with a $335 price target. The firm expects Apple to meet or beat Q3 FY2026 estimates when it reports on July 30.
Earnings on Deck
Monness is modeling Q3 FY2026 revenue of $109.42 billion, ahead of the Street consensus of $108.58 billion. It projects EPS of $1.95, above the Street estimate of $1.89.
The firm forecasts over 16% revenue growth year over year for the quarter — slightly below Q2’s nearly 17% but well above the 10% growth logged in Q3 FY2025.
The July 30 earnings call carries an added significance: it will be Tim Cook’s last as CEO before John Ternus takes over on September 1.
Not everyone is bullish. KeyBanc downgraded AAPL to Underweight from Sector Weight, pointing to slowing iPhone builds and weak U.S. upgrade trends.
Counterpoint Senior Analyst Shilpi Jain said the memory crisis has become the single biggest drag on the smartphone industry, with difficult conditions expected to continue through 2026 and potentially into 2027.
Apple also recently announced a multiyear agreement with Broadcom worth over $30 billion to design and produce custom silicon and wireless connectivity components, with more than 15 billion U.S.-made chips planned as part of the deal.
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