TLDR
- Shopify stock jumped as much as 8.97% on Monday, reaching an intraday high of $123.00, closing the prior session at $113.75.
- The rally came ahead of Q2 earnings due August 5, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $0.37 on revenue of $3.44 billion.
- CEO Tobias Lütke’s posts on X about Shopify’s new NVIDIA DGX Workstation boosted AI sentiment.
- Analyst consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $157.69; Jefferies recently upgraded to Buy with a $160 target.
- Shopify trades above its 20, 50, and 100-day SMAs but remains 6.8% below its 200-day SMA of $133.83.
Shopify (SHOP) stock surged as much as 8.97% on Monday, hitting $123.95 intraday and trading as high as $123.00, up from Friday’s close of $113.75.
The move came on light volume. Only about 1.2 million shares changed hands, roughly 88% below the stock’s average daily volume of 10.49 million. The price move was clearly not volume-driven.
The broader market wasn’t helping either. The Nasdaq dropped 0.84% and the S&P 500 fell 0.15% on the day, making Shopify’s move stand out.
Investors appear to be positioning ahead of the company’s Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for August 5.
Wall Street expects earnings of $0.37 per share, up from $0.35 a year ago. Revenue is forecast at $3.44 billion, compared with $2.68 billion in the year-ago quarter. Shopify itself guided for Q2 revenue of $3.40 billion to $3.46 billion back on May 5.
CEO’s AI Posts Add Fuel
Sentiment got a boost from CEO Tobias Lütke’s recent activity on X. Last week, Lütke showed off Shopify’s new NVIDIA DGX Workstation, describing it as a platform built for serious AI workloads.
He said the system was producing around 40 tokens per second on the GLM-52 model and was being used to rebuild Shopify’s Liquid programming language from the ground up overnight. It’s the kind of hands-on AI detail that markets have been rewarding lately.
On the analyst front, the picture is mostly positive. Shopify carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating with an average price target of $157.69 across analysts tracked by MarketBeat.
Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy on July 13 and raised its price target to $160. Citigroup maintained its Buy rating on July 24 but trimmed its target to $150. Rothschild & Co moved in the other direction, downgrading to Neutral and cutting its target to $130 on July 21.
DA Davidson still has a Buy rating but lowered its target from $195 to $140. Barclays sits at Equal Weight with a $126 target, and BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating on July 10.
Technical Picture
Technically, Shopify is now above its 20-day SMA of $120.76, its 50-day SMA of $114.06, and its 100-day SMA of $117.29. That keeps the near-term trend pointed higher.
The bigger test is the 200-day SMA at $133.83. The stock is still about 6.8% below that level, so the rally is best seen as a recovery move rather than a breakout.
Key resistance sits around $131. Key support is near $104.50, a prior buyer defense area from earlier in the year.
Institutional investors hold about 69.27% of Shopify’s stock. Several asset managers recently added to their positions, including Smartleaf Asset Management, which grew its holdings by 13.9% in Q2.
Shopify’s market cap stands at $160.69 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 122.61 and a beta of 2.58.
