TLDR
- Goldman Sachs has identified 20 Russell 1000 stocks most likely to benefit from AI-driven labor cost reductions
- Only 2% of S&P 500 companies quantified AI’s impact on earnings in Q2 2026, similar to Q1
- AI infrastructure stocks have driven roughly half of S&P 500 EPS growth so far this year
- Goldman estimates AI inference expenses are currently less than 0.5% of S&P 500 revenues, but spending is accelerating
- Academic studies cited by Goldman show a 20-30% labor productivity uplift where generative AI has been deployed
Goldman Sachs says the earnings boost from AI is still mostly coming from infrastructure companies, not the broader market. But that could be about to change.
Strategists led by Ben Snider found that even excluding “other income” from private investment stakes, earnings per share growth for Q2 2026 is up 31% year over year. AI infrastructure stocks account for roughly half of that growth. The median S&P 500 company grew EPS by 14%.
Despite the strong numbers, Goldman says the impact of AI adoption on corporate earnings remains narrow. Just 11% of S&P 500 companies quantified AI productivity gains tied to a specific use case. Only 2% said AI had a measurable impact on earnings, about the same share as in Q1 2026.
Goldman says Q2 results showed no statistically meaningful difference in earnings growth between companies reporting AI productivity gains and those that did not.
Still, the bank sees a shift coming. Enterprise AI spending has picked up sharply in recent months. Goldman estimates AI inference costs currently equal less than 0.5% of S&P 500 revenues, but notes spending has accelerated based on the Ramp AI Index of monthly spend per employee.
How Goldman Built the List
To find likely beneficiaries, Goldman screened Russell 1000 companies on two factors: labor costs as a share of revenue, and the share of each company’s wage bill exposed to AI automation, using occupation-level data from workforce analytics firm Revelio Labs.
Companies had to rank in the top half of their sector on both measures and had to mention AI in the context of productivity or efficiency on their Q2 or Q1 earnings calls. Goldman excluded any companies already in its AI infrastructure or AI disruption-risk baskets.
The top 20 stocks by average rank are CoStar Group, Dollar Tree, eBay, Arthur J. Gallagher, Brown and Brown, Axon Enterprise, Trade Desk, CMS Energy, Jacobs Solutions, Edison International, Aon, Marsh and McLennan, Kimberly-Clark, Willis Towers Watson, Airbnb, Iron Mountain, CBRE Group, RTX, Boeing, and Expedia.
What the Data Shows
CoStar Group ranked highest overall, with 37% of its wage bill exposed to AI automation and labor costs at 31% of sales. eBay and Dollar Tree also ranked near the top.
Goldman’s economists point to academic research showing a 20-30% productivity uplift in areas where generative AI has already been deployed. Industries with higher AI adoption are showing early signs of faster productivity growth in official U.S. data.
Investors are currently more focused on AI infrastructure names. Goldman says that focus may shift as AI adoption spreads and productivity gains start showing up in earnings reports over the coming quarters.
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