TLDR
- Bitcoin dropped over 2% to a low of $77,161 after Iran launched ballistic missiles at US bases in retaliation for US strikes on Larak Island
- Oil prices jumped more than 2%, with Brent crude trading above $90 per barrel
- The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.76%, its highest since January 2025
- Bitcoin futures open interest on CME, Binance, and Hyperliquid rose in recent hours despite the price dip
- Polymarket bettors give a 68% probability that BTC reaches $85,000 by December 31, 2026
Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday as geopolitical tension between the US and Iran rattled financial markets. The price dropped more than 2% to a low of $77,161 before recovering slightly to around $77,813.
The sell-off came after US forces struck two IRGC missile launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles at multiple US military bases across the Middle East. Fox News reported that nearly all incoming missiles were intercepted and no major damage was recorded.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) pushed back on Iran’s framing of the US strike as an “act of aggression,” saying forces took “limited, precise action” against minelaying operations posing an “imminent threat.”
BREAKING: Iran has just struck an oil tanker with 3 anti-ship cruise missiles in the US-backed southern Omani corridor while completing an outbound transit in the Strait of Hormuz under US escort, per UKMTO.
The vessel is the Saudi VLCC oil tanker "SIDR."
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) August 31, 2026
Oil markets reacted quickly. Brent crude futures climbed more than 2% to above $90 per barrel, while WTI crude surged past $85.50. Goldman Sachs had previously noted that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered to around two-thirds of normal levels.
Bitcoin had briefly recovered above $79K on earlier news, but the Iran retaliation pushed prices back down. Trading volume rose 50% over 24 hours, reflecting heightened activity.
Bond Yields Add More Pressure
Beyond the Middle East conflict, pressure came from US bond markets. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.76%, its highest point since January 2025. The 30-year yield hit 5.269%, just six basis points below its highest level since January 2007.
There it is.
12 days since US Treasury intervention in the bond market was announced and yields are up to a new 19-month high.
The 10Y Note Yield is now just 2 basis points away from its highest level since 2007.
The bond market appears to be completely ignoring the US… pic.twitter.com/PS2XG655Rr
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 31, 2026
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC he had not yet acted to shore up the long end of the yield curve. The Treasury had announced plans to double debt buyback transactions to $4 billion from September, but yields climbed anyway.
Ray Dalio publicly recommended underweighting bonds and overweighting gold, with “a bit of Bitcoin,” as a hedge against a potential US debt crisis.
The US dollar index climbed to around 99.6, adding further headwinds for crypto prices. US stocks also fell, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each dropping around 0.4%.
Analyst Flags Bearish RSI Signal
Analyst Rekt Capital flagged a hidden bearish divergence on Bitcoin’s daily RSI, warning that if the daily RSI continues making lower highs, it could signal “mounting weakness.” Bitcoin’s daily RSI stood at 70.7 on Monday, still in overbought territory.
Analyst CryptoXLarge posted on X that Bitcoin has never closed September green immediately after a green August, calling it a “historical extreme” worth watching as September begins.
$BTC IS ABOUT TO TEST A VERY WEIRD SEPTEMBER PATTERN
August is closing green but the problem i am watching rn is
Bitcoin has never managed to post a green September immediately after a green August
That doesn’t mean September HAS to dump
But when a market is sitting at a… pic.twitter.com/XxH9WFiOrN
— ᴄʀʏᴘᴛᴏ xʟᴀʀɢᴇ (@cryptoxlarg) August 30, 2026
Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average sat at $77,269, a level analysts have flagged as key support. BTC futures open interest rose 0.65% to $53.88 billion in the last hour of trading, with buying activity detected in derivatives markets.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $217 million in net inflows on Aug. 31, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with about $206 million, while spot Ether ETFs drew $87.68 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for roughly $59.94 million. BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager,… pic.twitter.com/O4R0RVVZWn
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 1, 2026
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $217 million in net inflows on August 31, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with around $206 million.
