TLDR
- Bitcoin jumped above $79,000 after US annual core CPI hit a 66-month low of 2.4%
- Monthly core CPI came in at 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast, pushing Fed rate hike odds to 85%
- Bitcoin ETFs saw $13.29 million in net outflows on September 11, a fourth straight day of outflows
- Ethereum ETFs saw $216 million in net inflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA leading at $149 million
- A confirmed close above $80,000 could open targets at $82,000 and $84,000
Bitcoin climbed back above $79,000 on September 11 after US Consumer Price Index data came in broadly in line with expectations. The move followed a brief dip to $76,000 before buyers stepped back in.
The leading cryptocurrency traded at $79,387.86, up 2.89% over 24 hours. The broader crypto market gained 2.36%, pushing total market cap to $2.69 trillion.
Annual core CPI slowed to 2.4%, its lowest level in 66 months. That reading excludes food and energy and is seen as a cleaner measure of underlying inflation.
Crypto analyst Crypto Patel had flagged the data release ahead of time, noting on X that if core CPI came in below 0.2% month-on-month, Fed rate hike expectations could fall and push Bitcoin higher. The data came in at 0.3%, which complicated that picture.
Headline CPI held at 3.4% year-on-year. Energy played a big role, with gasoline rising 3.9% in August and accounting for over a third of the monthly increase. The broader energy index rose 2.1% over the month, linked to rising oil prices tied to the US-Iran conflict.
BREAKING: August CPI inflation comes in at 3.4%, in-line with expectations of 3.4%
Core CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, also in-line with expectations of 2.4%.
Month-over-month CPI inflation rose +0.4%, the biggest increase since May 2026.
Treasury yields are rising on the news.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 11, 2026
Fed Rate Hike Odds Climb
Despite the cooler annual reading, monthly core CPI rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% consensus. That pushed implied odds of a Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting to 85%, up from 60% just a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
The monthly rise was driven by firm supercore services inflation, which strips out energy and shelter. Fed governor Christopher Waller had previously said he would lean toward holding rates if inflation showed “some signs of disinflation.”
US 30-year bond yields spiked to their highest levels since June 2004 before pulling back to 5.309%. Trading firm QCP Capital warned that rising yields present a headwind for Bitcoin, calling the current environment “the worst mix for Bitcoin” — a competing 5% risk-free rate without a growth impulse.
ETF Flows Tell a Mixed Story
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $13.29 million in net outflows on September 11, marking the fourth consecutive day of outflows, according to SoSoValue data. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT was the lone bright spot with $3.76 million in net inflows.
Bitcoin ETFs See $13.29M Net Outflows on September 11 (ET), Extending Outflow Streak to Four Days; Ethereum ETFs See $216M Net Inflows
According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $13.29 million on September 11 (ET), marking the fourth… pic.twitter.com/nkDVAk5opU
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) September 12, 2026
Analyst Ted Pillows noted on X that the day’s price pump was not driven by strong spot demand, and that rising rate hike odds add pressure. He added that a strong weekly close above $80,000 with solid ETF flows could push BTC toward $85,000, but said the current structure points more toward a dip.
$BTC daily MACD continues to trend down.
Today's pump was also not driven by strong spot demand, and now the rate hike odds are going up too.
If Bitcoin manages a strong weekly close above $80,000 with decent ETF flows, it could rally to $85,000.
But looking at the current… https://t.co/AeacHnvd9E pic.twitter.com/Z69uUY9y8e
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 11, 2026
Ethereum ETFs told a different story, recording $216 million in net inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA led with $149 million. Ethereum itself rallied over 8% on the day, reaching $2,640 for the first time in seven months.
On the technical side, Bitcoin’s MACD showed a bullish crossover with the histogram turning positive at 13.86, though both MACD lines remain below zero. The RSI sat at 54.98, placing BTC in neutral territory.
Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $13.29 million on September 11, extending a four-day streak heading into the Fed’s September 16 decision.
