TLDR
- Patients who switched from injectable weight-loss drugs to Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill lost an average of 4.1% of their body weight over three months.
- The real-world OCTANE study tracked 194 patients who moved from injectable semaglutide or tirzepatide to the oral pill.
- The share of participants classified as obese dropped from 87.1% to 65.5% after three months on the pill.
- Novo Nordisk stock has fallen more than 70% from its peak as Eli Lilly took over as the market leader in obesity drugs.
- Oral obesity treatments now make up about a third of US obesity prescriptions, with Novo holding over 80% of that segment.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) stock has dropped more than 70% from its all-time high. New data released Wednesday could offer the company some relief.
The Danish drugmaker presented results from its OCTANE study at a diabetes conference in Milan. The study looked at patients who switched from injectable obesity drugs to the daily Wegovy pill.
Participants lost an average of 4.1% of their body weight over three months after making the switch. That works out to about 4 kg, or 8.8 pounds, from a starting weight of 221.6 pounds.
Nearly 41% of patients lost at least 5% of their body weight within three months. The proportion classified as clinically obese fell from 87.1% to 65.5% over the same period.
The study included 194 patients using data from telehealth platform Ro. Most participants had switched from either Wegovy or Eli Lilly’s Zepbound before moving to the oral pill.
Why the Pill Matters for Novo
Novo built its early obesity-drug dominance on injectable Wegovy after its 2021 launch. That lead didn’t last. Eli Lilly has since overtaken Novo as the top player in the space.
The oral pill has become one of Novo’s few bright spots. Oral therapies now account for roughly a third of US obesity prescriptions, and Novo captures more than 80% of new oral prescriptions written.
CEO Mike Doustdar told Reuters last week that pills could eventually make up half the global obesity-drug market. Analysts peg that market’s total value at $100 billion or more annually by the end of the decade.
Novo’s Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange addressed a common question about the pill format directly. He said patient compliance concerns haven’t played out the way some expected.
“Clearly, a lot of patients do even better on the pill than they did on the (injectable) drugs,” Lange said in an interview.
What the Data Can and Can’t Show
Real-world studies like OCTANE differ from randomized clinical trials. They rely partly on self-reported patient data and can’t prove direct cause and effect the way controlled trials can.
Still, the numbers give Novo a talking point at a difficult time for the stock. Roughly 82% of participants with available data reported at least one treatment improvement, including better-fitting clothes and healthier eating habits.
Dr. Louis Aronne of Weill Cornell Medicine, a study co-author, said the results point to a workable option for certain patients. He noted the pill helped many participants drop below the clinical threshold for obesity.
The Wegovy pill contains a boxed warning for possible thyroid tumors, including cancer. It should not be used by people with a personal or family history of medullary thyroid carcinoma or MEN 2 syndrome.
Common side effects include nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, and stomach pain, among others.
The Wegovy pill is currently available in the US, UK, Germany, and the UAE. Novo said it plans to launch the pill in additional markets over the coming quarters.
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