TLDR
- SpaceX stock gained almost 16% over Friday and Monday, closing at $171.09.
- Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has a Buy rating and a $300 price target.
- The stock trades at about 106 times estimated 2027 earnings, down from 1,000 times in June.
- Wall Street projects 2027 earnings per share of $1.70, growing to $21.05 by 2031.
- SpaceX’s next Starship test flight and Q3 earnings report are seen as upcoming catalysts.
SpaceX stock closed at $171.09 on Monday, its highest level since mid-June. Shares rose nearly 8% that day alone, and gained almost 16% over Friday and Monday combined.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The move came after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas published a bullish note on the company. He rates the stock Buy and has set a price target of $300.
That target implies upside of roughly 75% from Monday’s closing price. Jonas wrote that the stock keeps getting “cheaper and cheaper,” even as the price climbs.
Here’s the logic. SpaceX stock trades for about 106 times estimated 2027 earnings. That sounds expensive, but it’s actually a steep drop from where things stood earlier this year.
The stock traded at roughly 1,000 times estimated 2027 earnings shortly after its June IPO. By July, that multiple had fallen to around 200 times. It has now been cut in half again.
Why the Multiple Keeps Shrinking
Earnings estimates are catching up fast. Wall Street initially projected almost no profit for SpaceX right after it went public.
Analysts now expect 2027 earnings per share of about $1.70. That figure is projected to grow to $21.05 by 2031.
That works out to an earnings growth rate near 90%. When you divide the price-to-earnings ratio by that growth rate, SpaceX’s PEG ratio comes out to about 1.2.
For comparison, the S&P 500 trades at a PEG of roughly two. A lower PEG generally suggests a stock is cheaper relative to its growth.
Jonas isn’t even the most bullish analyst covering the stock. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has a price target of $800, valuing SpaceX at about $11 trillion.
What’s Driving the Rally
Jonas pointed to a few catalysts in his note. These include future AI product releases, Starship progress, and new neocloud computing contracts.
He singled out the next Starship test flight as a key event to watch. A successful catch of the upper stage would mark the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO, according to the analysts.
Previous test flights ended with the upper stage splashing into the ocean instead of being recovered. SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings report, expected in late October, was flagged as another near-term catalyst.
SpaceX has had a busy few days. The company completed several launches within a single day, including a NASA crew delivery to the International Space Station.
One of those missions placed Google AI chips into orbit. SpaceX is also now generating AI revenue after acquiring Elon Musk’s xAI and later Cursor.
The company rents out computing capacity to customers that include Google and Anthropic. SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share.
Shares hit a record close of $201.80 on June 16 before losing more than 30% of their value ahead of the first post-IPO unlock. A trough hit in early August, and the stock has since recovered about 58%.
SpaceX stock was at $173.36 in premarket trading Tuesday, up 1.3%. Including premarket gains, the stock has climbed 17% over the past three days.
Forbes’ real-time billionaires tracker puts Musk’s fortune at $1.03 trillion following Monday’s gains, factoring in his stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.
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