TLDR
- Lucid delivered 3,806 vehicles in Q3, missing analyst estimates and down about 7% year over year.
- Production fell 38% to 2,954 units after Lucid cut a shift at its Arizona plant.
- Lucid stock has dropped about 61% so far this year.
- The company abandoned its original 2026 guidance of 26,000 vehicles, producing just 13,000 through Q3.
- One analyst sees up to 90% upside, with earnings due November 9.
Lucid (LCID) stock slipped in premarket trading Tuesday after the EV maker reported weaker than expected third-quarter deliveries. Shares were down about 0.2% to $4.16, continuing a rough year that has seen the stock fall roughly 61%.
Lucid delivered 3,806 vehicles in the third quarter. That missed the average analyst estimate of 4,687 from Visible Alpha, though FactSet and Bloomberg numbers, based on a smaller analyst sample, were closer to the actual figure. Either way, deliveries fell about 7% from the same quarter last year.
The bigger story is production. Lucid built just 2,954 vehicles in the quarter, down 38% from 4,774 in Q2. The company cut a second shift at its AMP-1 plant in Arizona as part of a cost-cutting plan targeting $1.4 billion in cash flow improvements this year.
Selling From Inventory
Lucid delivered more cars than it built. The gap of 852 vehicles came from existing inventory, a sign the company is working through unsold stock rather than ramping up output.
For the quarter ending September 30, Lucid produced 2,954 vehicles and delivered 3,806 vehicles.
Deliveries exceeded production as the company continues to execute its planned inventory reduction, converting existing vehicle inventory into customer deliveries as part of the… pic.twitter.com/GY8n79CKFb
— Lucid Motors (@LucidMotors) October 5, 2026
Lucid said demand for its Gravity SUV “continued to regain momentum,” though it gave no specific numbers to back that up. Make of that what you will.
The delivery miss fits a pattern. At the start of the year, Lucid guided for about 26,000 vehicles produced in 2026. It scrapped that target mid-year. Through nine months, the company has built only 13,000 cars.
Lucid’s best production quarter remains Q4 2025, when it made 8,412 vehicles. Its best delivery quarter was also Q4 2025, at 5,345 cars.
To hit Wall Street’s current full-year delivery estimate of around 17,070 vehicles, Lucid would need to deliver roughly 6,200 cars in the fourth quarter. That would be a new company record by a wide margin.
Using Bloomberg and FactSet numbers instead, Wall Street projects closer to 15,000 vehicles for the year, which would require about 5,000 deliveries in Q4. Still a stretch given quarterly deliveries haven’t topped 4,000 all year.
What Could Change The Picture
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard points to several upcoming catalysts. Lucid reports earnings on November 9. It’s also rolling out robotaxis through partnerships with Uber and Nuro.
A new production facility is being built in Saudi Arabia. A midsize vehicle is planned for 2027 to sit alongside the Air sedan and Gravity SUV.
Sheppard rates Lucid Hold with an $8 price target, implying about 90% upside from current levels. That’s one analyst’s view, not a consensus.
Across Wall Street, the average price target for Lucid sits around $7. But only three of 12 analysts covering the stock, about 25%, rate it a Buy.
The broader EV market context hasn’t helped. Wall Street projected about 33,000 vehicle sales for Lucid in 2026 two years ago. That number has shrunk steadily as the U.S. EV market cooled, especially after the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired in September 2025.
Lucid has delivered 10,852 vehicles so far in 2026.
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