TLDR
- Nebius Group (NBIS) stock fell 9.9% to $115.88 on Friday after DA Davidson cut its target to $125.
- Q3 revenue hit $980.8 million, up 571% and above the $907.2 million estimate.
- 2026 revenue is now guided to the low end of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion due to data center delays.
- Capex is now seen near $27 billion, inside a $40 billion to $45 billion infrastructure plan.
- Compass Point, Baird and Truist cut targets but kept Buy or Outperform ratings.
Nebius Group (NBIS) stock fell 9.9% on Friday to $115.88. It hit a low of $109.00 after closing at $128.64 the day before.
Volume ran heavy at about 48 million, which is 155% above the 18.8 million average. Sellers showed up in force.
The slide followed a price target cut from DA Davidson, which lowered its target to $125 from $250. The firm kept a neutral rating.
Even before Friday’s drop, the stock sat well off its 52-week high of $299.86. At $115.88, it is about 61% below that peak.
It also trades far under its 50-day average of $196.49 and its 200-day average of $178.58. Market value now stands near $29.3 billion.
A Strong Quarter, a Softer Outlook
The third-quarter report looked good on paper. Revenue reached $980.8 million, up from $582.3 million in the second quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $465.8 million, well above the $351.8 million analysts expected. Both figures topped estimates.
About $325 million of the revenue was a one-time item from the first phase of an asset-light partnership. That helped the beat, but it is not a repeatable stream.
Delays at third-party data centers pushed some revenue into 2027. Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range, while the consensus sat at $3.4 billion.
The annual recurring revenue goal moved too. Nebius now targets more than $7 billion by February 2027, down from a $7 billion to $9 billion range due in December 2026.
Spending plans grew as well. Capital spending is now seen near $27 billion, up from $20 billion to $25 billion, as part of a $40 billion to $45 billion infrastructure push.
Analysts Trim Targets, Keep Ratings
Compass Point cut its target to $245 from $300 and kept a Buy rating. Baird lowered its target to $200 from $340 and stayed at Outperform.
Truist trimmed its target to $245 from $355 and reiterated Buy. Rosenblatt held a Buy with a $304 target, pointing to the strong quarter.
Not everyone is upbeat. Rothschild & Co Redburn has a Sell rating with an $84 target, set back in September.
Across Wall Street, 2 analysts rate the stock Strong Buy, 13 say Buy, 4 say Hold and 2 say Sell. The consensus is Moderate Buy with an average target of $226.
Management pointed to a few positives. Pricing on third-quarter deals rose more than 20% per GPU-hour, and prepayments on agreements of a year or longer exceeded the related capital costs.
The company aims for $12 billion to $13 billion in 2027 revenue. Nebius closed Friday at $115.88, down $12.76 on the day, then traded at $112.80 after hours.
