TLDR
- UBS upgraded Ford (F) from Hold to Buy on Tuesday, April 14
- Analyst Joseph Spak set a $15 price target, implying a ~20% upside from ~$12.47
- UBS believes the market is underpricing Ford’s 2027 EPS by about 16%
- Ford stock rose 4.4% in early trading following the upgrade
- Ford is down nearly 9% year-to-date but UBS sees headwinds easing in H2 2026
Ford rallied sharply on Tuesday after UBS bucked the Wall Street consensus and upgraded the Detroit automaker to a Buy rating.
Analyst Joseph Spak moved Ford from Hold to Buy, attaching a $15 price target. That implies roughly 20% upside from the stock’s press-time price of around $12.47.
The stock responded quickly. Ford jumped 4.4% in the first half hour of trading on Tuesday morning.
Spak’s core argument is straightforward: the market is getting Ford’s earnings story wrong.
UBS estimates the market is currently pricing in Ford’s 2027 EPS at $1.73. Spak’s own forecast sits about 16% higher than that, with a path to over $2 in EPS by 2027.
He goes further, outlining a case for Ford pushing toward $3 in EPS power in the years beyond 2027.
That longer-term view rests on several pillars: a more favorable U.S. regulatory backdrop, a pragmatic EV strategy, growing battery energy storage system opportunities, and a tighter focus on higher-margin Pro software.
Headwinds Seen as Temporary
Two concerns have weighed on Ford’s stock price recently â rising gasoline prices and higher aluminum costs. Spak pushes back on both.
On aluminum specifically, he notes that Ford is hedged for 2026, meaning those cost pressures won’t bite this year. He views both headwinds as overdone and expects them to fade in the second half of 2026.
Ford is down nearly 9% year-to-date entering this week, having given back a strong run that saw the stock gain around 28% over the prior 12 months.
That YTD slide started in late February and has persisted through early April, leaving the stock well below its recent highs.
Where Wall Street Stands
UBS is in the minority here. Out of 13 analyst ratings tracked on TipRanks, Ford carries 4 Buy ratings, 8 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell.
Wells Fargo rated it a Sell with a $10 target as recently as March 31. RBC maintained a Hold and set an $11 target just the day before the UBS note, on April 13.
The consensus 12-month price target sits at $13.88, pointing to about 14% upside from the most recent close â meaningful, but well below UBS’s $15 call.
A Note on the Analyst
It’s worth flagging: Spak carries a zero out of five star rating on TipRanks, with a 44% accuracy rate and an average return of negative 8.40% across his recommendations.
That track record doesn’t necessarily invalidate the thesis, but it’s a data point investors may want to weigh.
Ford’s stock price at the time of writing sits near $12.47, with the $15 UBS target representing the most bullish call on the Street right now.
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