TLDR
- Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn cut odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 60% to 50%
- The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 but has no floor date set
- Senate floor time is running short before the August recess at the end of July
- Ethics provisions demanded by Senate Democrats remain unresolved
- If no timetable emerges by early July, passage could slip to after September
The CLARITY Act is a crypto market structure bill that cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 by a 15-9 vote with bipartisan support. Despite that progress, Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn has now cut his odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% just weeks ago.
Galaxy Research Cuts 2026 CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50%
Galaxy Research Head of Research @intangiblecoins said the firm has lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 60% to 50%, citing a tightening Senate calendar and limited progress in negotiations.… pic.twitter.com/M25UYyw5B9
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 29, 2026
The bill sits at number 423 on the Senate legislative calendar. It has not been scheduled for floor debate.
The core problem is time. The Senate is heading into its August recess at the end of July, and there are very few usable legislative weeks left.
Senate Losing Days to Other Priorities
The Senate recently lost a week to a fight over an anti-weaponization fund. The chamber also failed to advance a reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA, with a procedural vote failing 47 to 52.
Section 702 lapses on June 12. That means much of the coming week’s floor time will be taken up dealing with that issue, not crypto legislation.
Each delay on its own is small. Together, they eat into the narrow window the CLARITY Act needs.
For the bill to pass, Senate Majority Leader John Thune would need to schedule floor time in July. The bill still needs floor debate, an amendment process, and reconciliation with a Senate Agriculture text before any House action.
That is a long list of steps with very little calendar space to fit them in.
Democratic Votes Are Still Not Locked In
Beyond timing, a key substantive issue remains open. Senate Democrats led by Ruben Gallego have said ethics provisions are a precondition for their support. Those provisions are still unresolved after the committee deferred the question to the floor.
The bill needs at least 60 votes to advance. Galaxy Research expects two Republican no votes from Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, both of whom voted against the GENIUS Act last year.
That math means Thune has little reason to schedule floor time if Democratic votes are not yet secured.
What Could Change the Outlook
Thorn said he would raise his odds again if Thune publicly commits to floor time in early to mid-July, and if the ethics and illicit finance questions are visibly resolved with a solid block of nine or more Democratic votes confirmed.
News that the Banking and Agriculture Committee texts have been merged into a single package would also help.
Without those signals in the next two to three weeks, Galaxy Research says the realistic path shifts to September. But fall action runs into midterm election dynamics, when floor time gets scarce and members are focused on campaigns.
As of now, Galaxy Research still puts the CLARITY Act as more likely than not to pass in 2026, but the margin is shrinking.
