TLDR
- Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn believes Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June 2026.
- Bitcoin recorded five consecutive weekly closes above its 50-week moving average through October 18.
- Institutional investors reduced their net long Bitcoin futures exposure by 57% from the record-high week.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs added approximately 87,000 BTC between the June low and October 22, according to Galaxy.
- Thorn identified $76,540 as a critical level for assessing Bitcoin’s recovery outlook.
Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn believes Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that investors have entered a period of accumulation. His October 22 report argues for buying and holding Bitcoin despite weeks of trading around $80,000.
Bitcoin price has recovered from its June low near $58,500 but remains roughly 35% below its October 2025 record above $126,000, based on prices cited in the report. Thorn says the gap leaves room for recovery, although gains remain uncertain.
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started.
Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now.
Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue.
We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months.
Why?
Because there are far too many dynamic places to… pic.twitter.com/fK8zRNvPU0
— @jason (@Jason) October 27, 2026
Galaxy Points to a Possible Bitcoin Bottom
Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average before moving back above it in September. It then recorded five consecutive weekly closes above that measure through October 18, according to Galaxy.
The firm also reported slower selling by longtime holders. Owners of coins untouched for five years or longer moved 34,000 BTC monthly in 2026, compared with 67,000 in 2024.
Demand remains uneven. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $526.6 million on October 19, but prices stayed weak afterward. Daily inflows have not yet produced a sustained rally.
Large Investors Reduce Speculative Trades
Galaxy said asset managers’ net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have dropped 57% since the cryptocurrency reached its record high. Thorn views the decline as evidence that short-term traders have reduced their exposure.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had added about 87,000 BTC since the June low by October 22, Galaxy estimated. The firm says reduced futures trading alongside these purchases points to demand from investors holding Bitcoin outright.
Institutional interest continues through proposed products. Franklin Templeton recently filed for two stock ETFs with Bitcoin allocations. The funds would direct stock dividends into Bitcoin, but their filings do not confirm a trading launch.
Debt Concerns Meet Market Risks
Thorn also cited rising US debt, federal deficits, and borrowing costs. Galaxy argues that these pressures could increase interest in Bitcoin’s fixed supply, though its price still depends on investor demand and market conditions.
A recent Bitcoin market update examined the $80,000 level ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Changes in interest rates and financial markets remain possible sources of short-term volatility.
Galaxy named $76,540 as a test of its forecast. A weekly close below that level, without a recovery within a month, would weaken its case. The firm also identified stock market losses, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing as risks.
