TLDR
- Merck (MRK) stock rose about 3% to $145.40 in premarket trading after it beat third-quarter estimates.
- Adjusted earnings were $2.49 a share on $18.1 billion in sales, against forecasts of $2.09 and about $17.3 billion.
- Full-year earnings guidance rose to $2.77 to $2.82 a share, and the revenue range narrowed to $66.8 billion to $67.3 billion.
- Keytruda sales hit $8.6 billion, including $830 million from the subcutaneous Keytruda QLex.
- Investors are watching the post-2028 pipeline as Keytruda nears its patent expiration.
Merck (MRK) stock climbed 3.2% to $145.40 in premarket trading Thursday. The move came after the drugmaker beat third-quarter estimates and raised its profit outlook. S&P 500 futures were down 0.4% at the time.
Adjusted earnings came in at $2.49 a share. Wall Street had expected $2.09.
Revenue grew 4% on a constant-currency basis to $18.1 billion. Analysts had called for about $17.3 billion.
MERCK $MRK Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $18.1B (Est. $17.31B) 🟢; +5% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $2.49 (Est. $2.08) 🟢; -3% YoY
🔹 WINREVAIR Sales: $694M; +93% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 72.9%; -480 bps YoYRaises FY26 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $66.8B-$67.3B (Est. $67.04B) 🟡; from… pic.twitter.com/TXKN4N4Lcl— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) October 29, 2026
Pharmaceuticals made up the bulk of sales at $16.2 billion. Animal health added $1.7 billion, up 4%.
Keytruda, Merck’s top seller, brought in $8.6 billion across its intravenous and subcutaneous forms. Keytruda QLex pulled in $830 million, a 6% rise from a year ago. Sales of the subcutaneous version have climbed since its September 2025 approval and have tracked ahead of forecasts.
Winrevair, the heart-disease drug cleared in 2024, nearly doubled its sales to $694 million. Demand rose in the U.S., Europe and Japan. Gardasil sales grew 14% excluding currency effects to about $2 billion.
The Updated Outlook
Merck raised its full-year revenue forecast for the third time this year. It now expects $66.8 billion to $67.3 billion, narrowing the old range of $66.3 billion to $67.3 billion. The $67.05 billion midpoint is about in line with the $67.04 billion consensus.
Adjusted earnings guidance moved up to $2.77 to $2.82 a share. The prior range was $2.66 to $2.76, and analysts had pegged it near $2.46 to $2.65. Still, the new range sits well below Merck’s initial projections from the start of the year.
The outlook includes a one-time charge of 12 cents a share. It ties to a global license deal with Shanghai’s SciBrunch to co-develop a drug targeting tumor growth in hard-to-treat cancers.
Goldman Sachs analyst Asad Haider had expected “a relatively in-line set of results” before the report. He said attention was on next year, when Merck has signaled softer results.
The Pipeline Question
The 2028 patent expiration for Keytruda is the big issue hanging over the stock. Generic and biosimilar rivals can enter after that. Merck has been through this before, as Januvia sales fell 39% in the quarter after it lost protection in May.
Newer products are filling some of the gap. Haider pointed to the launch of Lipfendra, a cholesterol drug, and sees “a sizable new product cycle starting to emerge.” Sales of Lipfendra were not broken out in the release.
Merck is also developing a personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, with Moderna (MRNA). It is being tested alone and as an add-on to Keytruda. A data leak on the vaccine last week triggered a selloff.
CEO Robert Davis pointed to last weekend’s ESMO meeting. He cited new data for the antibody-drug conjugate sac-TMT and the first Phase 3 validation of a therapeutic cancer vaccine. “I’m increasingly confident in our ability to deliver long-term value for patients and shareholders,” he said.
Haider said clinical updates in late 2026 and early 2027 are the next real catalysts for the stock. Moderna stock was up about 3% on Thursday.
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