TLDR
- Elon Musk predicts SpaceX could hit $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033, driven by AI.
- That is 35 times higher than SpaceX’s expected 2027 revenue of $100 billion.
- Morgan Stanley projects $3.5 trillion by 2040, seven years later than Musk’s target.
- Wall Street projects SpaceX sales of $416 billion by 2030, well short of Musk’s figures.
- SPCX stock rose 0.9% Thursday and was down 0.2% in premarket Friday at $140.61.
Elon Musk has never been shy about setting big targets. On Thursday, he went public with a new one: SpaceX reaching $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033.
SPCX stock was trading at $140.61 in premarket Friday, down 0.2%, after rising 0.9% on Thursday. The stock sits just above its June IPO price of $135.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The prediction came after user DogeDesigner posted on X, sharing a Morgan Stanley investor note saying SpaceX was “attractively valued” and that investors were still underestimating the scale of Starship. Morgan Stanley also projects $3.5 trillion in revenue, but by 2040, not 2033.
Investment firm Mach 33’s CEO Aaron Burnett pointed out that Morgan Stanley’s estimate was “based on a number that’s almost half of the company’s stated goal and 10 years later than the company is targeting to achieve it.”
My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 27, 2026
Musk jumped into the thread. “My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033 fwiw,” he wrote. That would be an 80% average annual growth rate from the company’s expected $100 billion in 2027 sales.
Wall Street Is Nowhere Close
Wall Street’s own projections tell a very different story. Analysts see SpaceX hitting $175 billion in revenue in 2028, $281 billion in 2029, and $416 billion in 2030. At that rate, $3.5 trillion by 2033 looks like a stretch.
For context, no U.S. company has ever hit $1 trillion in annual revenue. Wall Street’s earliest estimate for that milestone goes to Amazon, projected to cross it in 2028.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who rates SPCX a Buy with a $300 price target, projects $2.6 trillion of SpaceX’s 2040 revenue coming from AI alone.
AI Is the Engine
AI is central to Musk’s growth thesis. And the broader AI spending numbers do support aggressive growth assumptions, even if not at Musk’s pace.
Nvidia recently projected 70% growth in calendar year 2027, above Wall Street’s 45% estimate. Alphabet’s cloud business grew 82% year over year in Q2, and its cloud services backlog hit $514 billion, up nearly 400% year over year.
SpaceX is also targeting 10,000 Starship launches per year by 2030, aligned with President Trump’s new space policy pushing for higher NASA launch cadence. A new launch facility, Starbase Louisiana, is set to break ground in 2027 with a first Starship launch targeted for 2029.
Musk has also said Starship’s upcoming Flight Test 14 will attempt to catch the rocket’s upper stage.
SPCX slipped 0.27% to $140.49 during overnight trading Thursday and was down 0.2% in premarket Friday at $140.61, with S&P 500 futures also down 0.1%.
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