TLDR
- Tema ETFs launched the DICE ETF on Sept. 9, giving investors indirect exposure to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket
- The fund holds private shares through special purpose vehicles, not actual prediction market contracts
- Kalshi and Polymarket were each valued at over $20 billion in recent funding rounds, with Kalshi possibly targeting $40 billion
- Prediction market trading volume hit over $10 billion monthly on each platform this summer
- Legal challenges remain, as several states are pushing to classify these platforms as sportsbooks
Tema ETFs launched a new exchange-traded fund called the Tema Trading and Prediction Markets ETF on Sept. 9. The fund trades under the ticker DICE and gives everyday investors a way to get exposure to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket without buying shares directly.
Tema launching a prediction markets ETF (theme ETF not actual event contracts, SEC still pondering those) but it has 15% in privates Kalshi and Polymarket. This makes sense to me re using the 15% illiquidity bucket- theme ETFs or sectors might as well get dose of private co part… pic.twitter.com/ybFfbyhppL
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 9, 2026
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are private companies, so most retail investors have had no way to buy in. DICE changes that by using special purpose vehicles, or SPVs, which pool investor money to buy pre-IPO shares in private companies.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the top two holdings in the fund. But together they make up only about 15% of the portfolio. The rest includes publicly traded companies like Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, Intercontinental Exchange, and Coinbase.
The fund carries a gross expense ratio of 0.75%.
Why Investors Are Paying Attention
Prediction markets have grown fast. Monthly trading volume topped $10 billion on each platform this summer, driven partly by global sporting events like the World Cup.
Tema President Steve Munroe said prediction market trading volume could grow nearly 20 times to reach $1 trillion by 2030. That kind of growth forecast is drawing attention from fund companies looking to build investable products around the sector.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket were valued at more than $20 billion each in recent financing rounds. Reports suggest Kalshi may be seeking to raise more money at a valuation of $40 billion.
Tema says its investments in Polymarket and Kalshi are priced at around a 10% to 13% discount to the companies’ latest valuations. If either company goes public above its current valuation, that could benefit ETF holders with pre-IPO exposure.
Legal Risks Remain
Not everything is straightforward. Several U.S. states are challenging the legal classification of Kalshi and Polymarket. The core question is whether their sports-related contracts are financial instruments or gambling products.
Both companies argue they should be regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They say their contracts are financial tools, not bets.
But if the U.S. Supreme Court steps in and rules against them, the companies could be treated like sportsbooks. That would put them under state-level regulations and limit where they can operate. Sports betting is currently not legal in major states like California, Georgia, and Texas.
Neither company has announced any IPO plans. Kalshi declined to comment on going public. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
Other ETFs also hold pre-IPO stakes in Kalshi. These include the ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF, which holds a Kalshi position worth $30 million, and the KraneShares Public-Private AI and Technology ETF, which holds a small stake in Polymarket.
For now, DICE is one of the most direct ways for public market investors to gain exposure to the prediction markets industry, even if the path forward remains uncertain.
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