TLDR
- Nvidia has committed at least $6.5 billion to photonics companies since March 2026
- Investments include $2B each into Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell, plus $500M into Corning and Ayar Labs
- NVDA stock has been underperforming since its recent earnings, trading around $216
- Lynx Equity Strategies believes the stock could hit $250 near term if Computex momentum builds
- Jensen Huang is keynoting Computex Sunday, where investors expect detail on Rubin GPU ramp and the $1 trillion GPU systems outlook
Nvidia (NVDA) stock is trading around $216.24, up roughly 0.93% Friday, as the market watches Jensen Huang head to Computex this weekend with plenty to prove.
The stock has been losing ground since Nvidia’s last earnings call, underperforming peers in the AI chip space. Lynx Equity Strategies pointed to two main reasons: investors selling NVDA to fund other positions, and lingering uncertainty around the ramp of its next-gen Rubin GPU architecture.
“The CEO did not make a compelling case at the earnings call,” Lynx wrote in a note. Sunday’s Computex keynote is his chance to fix that.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, Nvidia has been making a very large bet on photonics technology. Since March, the company has committed at least $6.5 billion to companies working on using light — rather than electricity — to move data.
The investments include $2 billion each into Lumentum, Coherent, and Marvell. Nvidia also put $500 million into Corning for optical connectivity work, and joined Ayar Labs’ $500 million Series E round.
Photonics moves data using light instead of electrical signals running through copper. Copper is cheaper and reliable, but energy-hungry — and that’s increasingly a problem as AI infrastructure scales.
“Photonics represents a way for Nvidia to scale their AI infrastructure without the energy costs that staying with electrical and copper will incur,” Alvin Nguyen, senior analyst at Forrester, told CNBC.
Why Photonics Matters Now
Nvidia already has some photonics tools built into its networking stack, including technology it says can connect millions of GPUs across data center sites while cutting energy use.
Huang addressed the push directly at GTC in March: “We’re starting to scale our silicon photonics technology… the amount of silicon photonics technology capacity that we need is substantially higher than the world has today.”
Brian Colello at Morningstar added that Nvidia’s next-gen rack-scale solutions will need growing amounts of optical connectivity to keep up with bandwidth demands from new AI models.
The companies receiving Nvidia’s backing have had a strong 2026. Lumentum is up 134% year-to-date. Marvell has gained 122%. Corning is up 111%, and Coherent has risen 96%.
What to Watch at Computex
Lynx flagged specific things investors should listen for at Sunday’s keynote: clarity on the $20 billion and $200 billion revenue and total addressable market figures tied to Nvidia’s Vera CPU initiative, and a concrete update on the Rubin GPU ramp that underpins Nvidia’s $1 trillion GPU systems outlook.
Huang was also spotted in Taiwan hosting a dinner with the heads of Foxconn, TSMC, and Pegatron — local press called it the “trillion yuan feast.”
Lynx said that if AI momentum from other names carries into Nvidia, the stock could approach $250 near term, based on 20x consensus 2027 earnings estimates. The firm maintains a long-term cautious stance on the stock.
Nvidia’s next major catalyst is Sunday’s Computex keynote.
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