TLDRs;
- Investors are watching whether Rigetti can grow revenue while supporting its $5 billion market valuation.
- Rigetti reported $569 million in cash and investments with no outstanding debt entering earnings week.
- Recurring access revenue remained extremely small in the previous quarter, raising questions about long-term adoption.
- Product sales, cash burn, and new quantum contracts are expected to drive Thursday’s earnings reaction.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) enters one of its most closely watched earnings weeks of 2026 as investors shift attention from quantum computing excitement to the company’s ability to generate meaningful revenue. The stock ended Friday at $14.95, up 5.7% for the week, but analysts say Thursday’s second-quarter report will likely be judged less on the headline numbers and more on the quality and sustainability of sales.
The company is expected to release earnings after the market closes on Thursday, with early forecasts pointing to revenue between $5.1 million and $5.3 million and a loss of roughly $0.03 to $0.06 per share. Even if Rigetti reaches the low end of that range, quarterly revenue would rise about 16% from the $4.4 million reported in the first quarter.
With a market capitalization of roughly $5.0 billion, the gap between Rigetti’s valuation and its current revenue base remains unusually wide, making the upcoming report a key test of investor confidence.
Revenue quality under scrutiny
In the first quarter, most of Rigetti’s revenue came from quantum systems and components, which accounted for about 69% of total sales. Research and professional services contributed nearly 30%, while quantum system access generated only about $55,000, or 1.3% of revenue.
That access figure has become an important point for investors because it is the closest disclosed indicator of recurring usage revenue. A meaningful increase could suggest that customers are using Rigetti’s quantum infrastructure more frequently rather than purchasing one-time hardware or research services.
The market is increasingly looking for signs that quantum computing companies can build repeatable commercial businesses. For Rigetti, Thursday’s report may offer the clearest evidence yet of whether that transition is beginning.
Massive cash buffer
One of Rigetti’s strongest financial advantages remains its balance sheet. As of March 31, the company held $569 million in cash and investments and reported no outstanding debt.
Operating cash use during the first quarter was $16.2 million. While that figure does not account for future capital expenditures or potential increases in spending, it suggests that Rigetti has substantial financial flexibility compared with many early-stage technology companies.
Investors are expected to focus closely on whether cash consumption remains stable. If management can demonstrate revenue growth without a significant acceleration in cash burn, the company’s liquidity position could become a stronger part of the investment story.
Novera and HPE partnership
Rigetti also announced a notable technology development last week. The company plans to deliver a 9-qubit Novera processor to a Pittsburgh-based testbed, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise assisting in the construction of the hybrid quantum-classical platform.
The initiative is supported by a $5 million grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation, although Rigetti has not disclosed the value of its own contract within the project.
Chief Executive Subodh Kulkarni described the installation as an important technical milestone for the company’s quantum platform. However, investors should not expect the project to contribute significant near-term revenue, making it more relevant as a validation of technology than as an immediate financial catalyst.
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