TLDR
- US stock futures rose early Monday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted back-to-back weekly losses.
- The Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan announce rate decisions Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
- Fed funds futures show a 90% chance of a hold, but Bank of America expects a quarter point hike.
- Brent crude fell to $114.52 after hitting its highest level since April, and Brazilian stocks face a sell-off after Lula’s win.
- CoreWeave and Intel slid premarket as AI worries continued.
US stock futures rose early Monday as traders looked ahead to a busy week of central bank decisions. The gains followed a second straight weekly loss for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
S&P 500 futures were up 0.25%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 155 points, or 0.31%, and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.29%.
On Friday, higher oil prices and a broad sell-off pushed the three major averages lower. The Dow fell more than 650 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.2%.
Central Banks Take Center Stage
The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will announce rate decisions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The Fed’s decision comes first.
🚨This week's key events are going to be BIG.
It's FED week.
The Fed HIKED last month, and on Wednesday it decides again, a day before headline PCE inflation is expected to come in at 3.6%, nearly DOUBLE its 2% target.
Then Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, worth over $10… pic.twitter.com/v8uxl1AEMe
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 25, 2026
Fed funds futures show a 90% chance that policy makers hold rates at the current range of 3.75% to 4%. Bank of America sees it differently and expects a quarter point hike.
Bank of America economist Claudio Irigoyen called a hike a “heavy lift” move. He said the October decision will test Fed Chair Warsh’s resolve to change the Fed’s forward guidance strategy.
Irigoyen said a hike could raise worries about overtightening. A hold, he said, could lead markets to question the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility.
Oil, Politics and AI Stocks Move Markets
Brent crude fell 2.20% in Asia to $114.52 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate slid 2.24% to $101.03 a barrel.
Brent hit its highest level since April on Friday. News reports said the US and Israel could be planning strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.
France’s 10-year bond yield touched 5% last week for the first time since 2002. Yields traded just below that level Monday after weekend protests in France were relatively orderly.
Moody’s kept France’s Aa3 credit rating and negative outlook on Friday. The agency said it could raise the outlook to stable if the country’s institutions reduce the deficit.
Brazilian stocks are set to sell off after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election. He beat Flávio Bolsonaro, who was seen as the more markets-friendly candidate, and a UK-traded ETF tracking Brazilian stocks fell by more than a quarter.
CoreWeave slid again in premarket trading as fears around the AI trade continued. Other neocloud and chip stocks, including Intel, also dropped.
Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft report earnings this week. They are expected to update investors on their AI spending.
Asian markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.1% and the Topix rose 0.54%, while South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.66% and China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.54%.
In the latest trading, E-Mini Dow futures were up 0.44% at $52,622, E-Mini S&P 500 futures were up 0.28% at $7,681.25 and E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.19% at $29,172.75. Brent crude traded at $109.74.
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