TLDR
- XRP hit a 15-month low of $1.12 on Feb. 6 before recovering 50% to $1.67
- Exchange supply dropped to a 5-year low, suggesting reduced selling pressure
- Funding rates hit extreme lows, a historical signal of potential bottoms
- Spot XRP ETFs have seen inflows on 53 of 59 trading days, totaling $1.23 billion
- Analyst CryptoBull predicts XRP could reach $13 in three months based on Elliott Wave analysis
XRP dropped to $1.12 on Feb. 6, its lowest price in 15 months. Since then, it has recovered around 50%, reaching a high of $1.67.
Despite that bounce, XRP still trades more than 60% below its multi-year high of $3.66. Traders are now watching several metrics to determine whether the low is in.
The first signal comes from exchange supply data. According to Glassnode, the total XRP balance held on exchanges fell to 12.9 billion tokens — a level not seen since May 2021. When tokens leave exchanges, it often means holders are moving them to self-custody rather than preparing to sell.
Data from CryptoQuant shows Binance’s XRP reserve has also fallen sharply, to around 2.57 billion XRP. Both its 50-day and 100-day moving averages are trending downward.
Funding Rates and Open Interest
Binance funding rates for XRP fell to -0.028% when the price hit $1.12 — the lowest since April 2025. Extreme negative funding rates have historically preceded sharp price reversals.
A similar setup in April 2025 was followed by a 65% rally, with XRP climbing from $1.60 to $2.65 as short positions were squeezed out.
XRP futures open interest has also dropped to $2.53 billion, down 55% from a peak of $4.55 billion in early January. That decline suggests leveraged traders are pulling back rather than adding new short positions.
The 90-day spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD) flipped positive on Tuesday. This means buy orders are now outpacing sell orders, a signal that demand is returning at current price levels.
ETF Inflows Hold Steady
US-based spot XRP ETFs have recorded inflows on 53 out of 59 trading days since launching in November 2025. Total cumulative inflows reached $1.23 billion, with net assets under management topping $1.01 billion, according to SoSoValue.
For the week ending Feb. 13, XRP exchange-traded products were the top performer among all crypto investment products globally, pulling in $33.4 million in inflows while the broader crypto ETP market saw $173 million in outflows.
$70 price target for #XRP. We are repeating the 2017 bullrun with a longer timeframe. The wave 2 has completed and wave 3 will take us to $13 within the next 3 months. pic.twitter.com/8rWRctWCyf
— CryptoBull (@CryptoBull2020) February 16, 2026
Analyst CryptoBull has shared a chart on X suggesting XRP is following the same Elliott Wave structure seen during its 2017 bull run. Under that framework, the current consolidation represents the end of Wave 2, with a Wave 3 rally potentially targeting $13 within three months.
A more cautious view comes from analyst Guy on the Earth, who points to $1.41 as a key weekly support level. A close below that level could open the door to a drop toward $0.60.
XRP was trading at $1.43 at the time of writing.
