TLDR
- BofA analyst Justin Post expects Google to unveil a next-gen Gemini LLM at Google I/O on May 19
- New Gemini could include stronger reasoning, coding, multimodal, and long-context capabilities
- Agentic AI is expected to be a top theme, with deeper integration across Chrome, Gmail, Maps, and Android
- BofA maintains a Buy rating with a $430 price target, implying ~8% upside
- Expectations are high heading in, which creates risk if announcements underwhelm
Alphabet’s annual Google I/O developer conference kicks off May 19, and Wall Street is already setting the table.
Bank of America analyst Justin Post laid out his expectations in a note Friday, saying he anticipates a broad set of AI announcements centered on Gemini and agentic capabilities.
GOOGL was trading down 0.96% on Friday ahead of the event.
BofA expects Google to unveil a next-generation Gemini large language model — potentially version 4 or a major 3.X upgrade. The new model is expected to bring improvements in reasoning, coding, multimodal performance, and long-context handling.
Faster and cheaper Flash variants are also on the table, along with upgraded models for video, image, and audio generation.
Agentic AI Takes Center Stage
Agentic AI is expected to be the headline theme of the event. Reports suggest Google is building out autonomous task capabilities across Chrome, Gmail, Maps, Calendar, Search, and Android.
That means Gemini could soon book reservations, edit your calendar, fill forms, and manage shopping workflows — without you lifting a finger.
Chrome is specifically called out. AI-powered browsing could let Gemini interact directly with websites and complete multi-step tasks, while still requiring user approval for transactions.
Google may also expand its AI assistant with persistent memory, live camera interaction, and proactive contextual help.
Search and Smart Glasses in Focus
On the search side, Post expects enhancements to AI Mode functionality, positioning it as a free AI assistant with better personalization and multi-app integration.
Smart glasses features are also expected to get attention, with Post noting that progress here could build momentum ahead of a potential second-half release.
Post flags that continued Gemini innovation would support Google Cloud adoption and consumer engagement — two areas the market is watching closely.
He does note, though, that broad adoption of agentic systems is likely to take years, not quarters. Consumers will still value speed and pricing from “best of breed” apps.
“We would expect Booking and Expedia to be key partners in any agentic announcements around travel, while we would not expect Amazon to be an early partner for eCommerce,” Post said.
With Google trading near 27x 2027 estimated earnings, Post says “AI surprises” are likely needed to push the multiple higher from here.
One risk Post flags: expectations heading into I/O are elevated. If the announcements fall short, there could be near-term pressure on the stock.
BofA maintained its Buy rating with a $430 price target. That implies roughly 8% upside from current levels.
The Street’s average target sits at $426.44, also pointing to about 7% upside. Of 33 analysts covering the name, 28 rate it a Buy and 5 have a Hold. The consensus is Strong Buy.
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