TLDR
- Netflix closed around $77, down roughly 16% year-to-date and below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages
- A Semafor report claimed Netflix was eyeing a Lionsgate acquisition; Netflix denied it, sending both stocks in opposite directions
- Netflix signed an exclusive multi-year TV deal with Ryan Coogler’s Proximity Media
- Q2 earnings are due July 16; full-year revenue guidance of $50.7B–$51.7B and 31.5% operating margin guidance remain below Wall Street consensus
- Netflix trades at $77.32, roughly 32% below the analyst consensus price target of $114.15
Netflix (NFLX) stock closed at $77.38 on Wednesday, up just 0.55%, a muted move against a broader tech rally that pushed the Nasdaq up 1.91%.
The stock has had a rough stretch. It’s down 16% year-to-date versus a 10% gain for the S&P 500, and is trading below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The 52-week range runs from $75.01 to $134.12.
Trading volume hit 87.3 million on Wednesday — about 122% above the three-month average of 39.4 million. That kind of volume spike tends to signal something is going on beneath the surface.
A lot was.
On Tuesday, Semafor reported that Netflix was exploring an acquisition of Lionsgate Studios — the studio behind “Michael,” the Michael Jackson biopic that has now topped $900 million at the global box office. The report sent Lionsgate stock up 14% to close at $16.36, even briefly hitting an intraday record of $16.70. Netflix dropped 4% the same day.
Then on Wednesday, Netflix denied the report. Lionsgate fell 6%. Netflix edged higher.
It’s worth noting Netflix has been down this road before. The company reportedly pursued Warner Bros. Discovery before being outbid by Paramount Skydance. It also looked at Roku before pulling back, though Netflix has denied that one. This week, Fox acquired Roku in a reported $22 billion deal.
Semafor noted Netflix has not submitted a formal indication of interest in Lionsgate, and that it is one of several media companies circling the studio.
Ryan Coogler Deal Adds to Content Push
On the content side, Netflix announced an exclusive multi-year TV deal with Proximity Media, the production company founded by Ryan Coogler. The partnership covers new original series made solely for Netflix.
Coogler’s team is behind Black Panther and the 2025 original feature Sinners. The deal adds another high-profile creative partner to Netflix’s roster as the company continues building out its original programming library.
The stock trades at $77.32 against an analyst consensus target of $114.15 — roughly 32% below expectations. Simply Wall St pegs it at about 18.8% below estimated fair value.
Earnings on July 16 Will Be the Real Test
With Q2 results due July 16, investor focus is tightening. Netflix held its full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $50.7B–$51.7B and set operating margin guidance at 31.5% — both below Wall Street’s consensus of 32%.
Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan said Netflix’s recent earnings are supportive of the long-term story around revenue growth and rising margins, but noted the short-term debate will stay focused on engagement trends and the building blocks of Q2 revenue — user growth, pricing, and ad-tier performance.
Netflix is down 36.7% over the past year but up 83% over three years and 49.2% over five years.
The stock closed Thursday up 0.61%, with Lionsgate down just 0.33%.
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