TLDR
- VanEck says Bitcoin’s current bear cycle is showing signs of exhaustion.
- BTC has fallen from roughly $125,000 to the low-$60,000 range.
- Two of VanEck’s three GEO indicators are neutral, while leverage is constructive.
- Glassnode identifies $58,500 as a key downside level if support breaks.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $61.1 million in net outflows on August 12.
Bitcoin may be approaching the final stages of its current bear cycle after falling from roughly $125,000 to the low-$60,000 range, VanEck said in its latest market outlook. The asset manager sees signs that selling pressure is losing strength, although weak spot demand continues to leave BTC exposed to another decline.
The assessment comes as Bitcoin spot trading activity falls to its lowest level since 2019 and US spot Bitcoin ETFs record renewed outflows. Glassnode has identified $58,500 as an important downside level if current support fails, creating a more cautious picture alongside VanEck’s bottoming view.
VanEck Says Bitcoin Bear Cycle Is Nearing Exhaustion
VanEck links Bitcoin’s current decline to its historical four-year halving cycle. The firm said BTC entered a cyclical bear phase after its latest market peak and has since fallen from around $125,000 into the low $60,000s. VanEck described these recurring declines as “features, not structural breaks,” while warning that past cycles do not guarantee future results.
The firm uses its GEO framework to track global liquidity, ecosystem leverage and on-chain activity. Two of the three readings are currently neutral, while ecosystem leverage is constructive. VanEck said those conditions point toward a market that may be approaching a cyclical bottom and could warrant gradually increasing exposure rather than attempting to identify an exact low.
The call follows earlier comments from VanEck CEO Jan van Eck that Bitcoin was forming a bottom during the 2026 bear market. However, the firm continues to treat the four-year cycle as a reference rather than a precise timing tool, leaving room for further volatility before a durable recovery develops.
Glassnode Flags $58,500 Bitcoin Downside Risk
Glassnode’s latest on-chain readings present a more cautious near-term setup. Bitcoin is trading around a $63,000 median realized price while facing resistance near the $68,700 short-term holder cost basis. Spot volume has dropped to its lowest point since Glassnode’s dataset began in 2019, pointing to limited participation from buyers and sellers.
Source: X
Seller-exhaustion readings have moved toward levels recorded during earlier bear-market bottoms, supporting the case that heavy selling may be fading. Buying demand has not strengthened at the same pace, with exchange inflows continuing while institutional demand remains subdued.
Glassnode identified the June low near $58,500 as the main downside level to watch. A break below that price could accelerate selling because order-book bids remain thin while leveraged traders hold crowded long positions. A sustained move above $68,700 with stronger volume and ETF inflows would provide a clearer recovery signal.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Add Pressure as BTC Searches for Bottom
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $61.1 million in net outflows on August 12, led by $46.8 million leaving Fidelity’s FBTC. BlackRock’s IBIT also recorded $14.3 million in withdrawals during the session.
Source: X
Outflows accelerated on August 13, reaching $131.1 million across the US spot Bitcoin ETF market. Fidelity recorded another $55.1 million in withdrawals, while ARKB posted $58.8 million in outflows.
Bitcoin therefore remains caught between two competing sets of conditions. VanEck’s cycle indicators point toward a market approaching exhaustion, while Glassnode continues to record weak demand and warns that $58,500 remains vulnerable.
