TLDR
- SpaceX stock is up around 22% since the first lockup tranche was released last Thursday
- A second tranche of SPCX stock unlocks on Aug 20
- The stock is still down over 6% from its June IPO price and 30% from its all-time high of $201.80
- Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating with a $200 price target, implying 42% upside
- Startup Stoke Space Technologies is raising $1 billion to build a fully reusable rocket to compete with SpaceX
SpaceX stock edged up 0.9% to $142.55 in Friday’s premarket trading, continuing a run that has seen the stock gain around 22% in the week since its first lockup tranche was released on Aug 7.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Despite that bounce, SPCX is still down more than 6% since it began trading on June 12, and sits 30% below its record high of $201.80 set on June 16.
The rally comes as Wall Street braces for another key moment. A second tranche of SpaceX stock unlocks on Aug 20, the second such release since the company went public two months ago.
Investors are watching closely. Markets widely expected a selloff after the first lockup ended. That didn’t happen. Whether the same holds true next week is the big question.
Elon Musk held a 48.4% stake in SpaceX as of June 30, according to a regulatory filing released Thursday. Based on Thursday’s closing price, that stake is worth nearly $906.9 billion.
Mizuho Reiterates Outperform, Sees 42% Upside
Adding some positive noise to the day, Mizuho analyst Brett Linzey reiterated an Outperform rating and set a $200 price target on SPCX. That implies roughly 42% upside from current levels.
Linzey highlighted SpaceX’s AI model, Grok 4.6, calling it “frontier-level performance.” He said the model now performs roughly in line with the latest offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic across coding, multi-turn reasoning, and complex math.
Linzey believes lower pricing and distribution through Cursor, the AI coding platform, could help Grok pick up more enterprise customers and take market share from rival AI platforms.
Mizuho also flagged tight conditions in the AI compute market. Working with senior software analyst Gregg Moskowitz, Linzey found that high-performance compute capacity remains scarce, with prices rising on both new and older-generation systems.
For SpaceX, that could be an advantage. The company has built large internal compute clusters for its AI business, reducing its dependence on external providers. As outside capacity gets harder to secure, that internal infrastructure could give SpaceXAI room to grow.
The broader analyst community is on board. SPCX carries a Moderate Buy consensus on TipRanks, based on 24 Buy ratings, five Holds, and two Sells. The average price target of $232.35 implies 64% upside from current levels.
Stoke Space Raises $1 Billion to Take On SpaceX
On the competitive front, startup Stoke Space Technologies is raising $1 billion to accelerate development of a fully reusable rocket, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter.
SpaceX currently holds more than 90% of the global commercial satellite launch market. Competing in that space is no easy task.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket suffered an engine failure on its third flight in April, leaving an AST SpaceMobile satellite off its target orbit. A static fire explosion in May then destroyed the vehicle and damaged a Cape Canaveral launch complex.
Linzey holds a 74% success rate on TipRanks, ranking 244th out of 12,468 tracked analysts, with an average return of 16.20% per rating.
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