TLDR
- IonQ raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $450M-$460M, up from $280M-$290M, a roughly 60% increase.
- Most of the raise comes from SkyWater Technology, the chip foundry IonQ acquired on July 31.
- IonQ launched its sixth-generation quantum platform, Superion 256, with customer deliveries expected in 2027.
- B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis reiterated a Buy rating with a $100 price target, citing improved revenue visibility.
- Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus on IONQ with an average price target of $69.44, implying 71.6% upside.
IonQ stock rose about 2.4% on Tuesday, trading near $44, after the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $450 million to $460 million. That’s up from the $280 million to $290 million range issued just last month.
The stock came into the session with a market cap of roughly $15.7 billion. After the move, it sits at around $17 billion.
The headline number looks impressive. But the raise is almost entirely driven by SkyWater Technology, the chip foundry IonQ finished buying on July 31 for about $1.8 billion in a cash-and-stock deal.
The new guidance simply folds SkyWater’s revenue in from the July 31 closing date through year-end. The midpoint step-up is about $170 million. IonQ did not break out exactly how much of that comes from SkyWater, but the foundry’s own numbers tell the story.
SkyWater pulled in $317.1 million in revenue during the first half of its fiscal 2026, more than double the prior year. At that pace, five months of contribution could reach roughly $264 million, well above the $170 million increase, even after accounting for intercompany sales.
Quantum Business Gets No New Guidance
The quantum platform itself received no updated numbers. The August midpoint of $285 million still stands. That means the quantum business is now being valued at a slightly higher sales multiple than before the announcement, not a lower one.
Before Tuesday, the quantum platform traded at about 49 times guided sales. Strip out the $1.8 billion foundry valuation, and the quantum business now trades at roughly 53 times its guided sales. So on an apples-to-apples basis, the quantum side of the business got modestly more expensive, not cheaper.
IonQ remains deeply unprofitable. Its second-quarter non-GAAP EBITDA loss came in at $120.3 million, bigger than the quarter’s entire revenue of $80.1 million.
This was the third guidance raise of the year. The first two were driven by the quantum business beating its own forecasts. February’s initial guidance was $225M to $245M. May’s update moved it to $260M to $270M. August pushed it to $280M to $290M. Tuesday’s raise is the first driven primarily by an acquisition.
Superion 256 and Analyst Reaction
Alongside the guidance update, IonQ unveiled Superion 256, its sixth-generation quantum computing platform. Chips for the system are fabricated at SkyWater. The company is now accepting pre-orders, with customer deliveries expected in 2027.
B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis reiterated a Buy rating with a $100 price target. He sees 5% to 7% upside in both organic IonQ and SkyWater revenues in 2026 and believes annualized revenue could approach $1 billion within the next four quarters.
Wall Street overall holds a Strong Buy consensus on IONQ, based on eight Buys and one Hold. The average price target sits at $69.44.
Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave (QBTS) also rose on Tuesday, up roughly 4% and 7% respectively, after the U.S. government finalized $100 million CHIPS Act awards to each company.
