TLDR
- European natural gas prices hit their highest level in nearly four years on Wednesday
- The Iran War has disrupted around 20% of global LNG supplies
- Europe enters winter with gas storage at its lowest since 2009, sitting at 67% full vs the 84% five-year average
- American LNG exporters like Cheniere Energy, Venture Global and NextDecade are among the biggest beneficiaries
- Venture Global stock is up 115% this year, while Equinor has risen 83%
European natural gas prices surged to their highest point in nearly four years this week, driven by supply disruptions tied to the Iran War and worrying storage levels heading into winter.
The benchmark Dutch TTF contract briefly crossed 80 euros per megawatt-hour before pulling back slightly to trade at 79.21 euros in early Wednesday trading. That is the highest level since late 2022.
Why Prices Are Climbing
The Iran War has knocked out roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas supplies at a bad time for Europe. The continent is heading into the winter heating season with storage at just 67% capacity. The five-year average for this time of year is 84%, according to data from Wood Mackenzie.
That gap has traders worried. If this winter turns cold, prices could push even higher.
A growing price difference between European and Asian LNG markets is adding more pressure. When Asian prices rise, more LNG cargoes get pulled toward Asia, leaving Europe competing harder for supply.
Natural gas powers home heating and electricity generation across the continent, making the stakes high for consumers and governments alike.
Which Stocks Are Benefiting
American LNG exporters are direct winners from higher European prices. Venture Global, which runs export terminals in Louisiana, has the most exposure to spot market prices among its peers. Its stock is up 115% so far this year.
Cheniere Energy, the largest U.S. LNG exporter, has also gained, rising 39% year to date. NextDecade is another name benefiting from the trend.
Norwegian energy company Equinor, Europe’s largest natural gas producer, has climbed 83% this year.
Shell is also in the mix. The oil major buys LNG at fixed prices and sells it where demand is highest. Its stock trades at 10 times expected 2027 earnings, cheaper than peers like Exxon Mobil at 15 times.
Some investors are also looking at U.S. gas producers like EQT, Range Resources, Antero Resources, Comstock Resources and Expand Energy. These companies have lagged so far because of domestic oversupply, but could benefit if rising exports eventually lift U.S. prices.
U.S. LNG exports currently account for about 20% of total production. That share is expected to roughly double between 2025 and 2030, which could tighten the domestic market over time.
Portfolio manager Leigh Goehring of Goehring and Rozencwajg Associates said last month he is bullish on U.S. producers as that shift plays out.
For now, the clearest beneficiaries remain the LNG exporters and European producers with direct exposure to spot prices.
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