TLDR
- MSTR stock jumped 5.1% to $135.17 after August CPI data eased rate hike fears
- STRC preferred stock hit a 15-week high at $98.64, up 38% since June 26 and just $1.36 below par value
- Strategy has repurchased $811.5 million in STRC since July, funded by selling MSTR stock and Bitcoin
- Canaccord Genuity raised its MSTR price target to $179, keeping a Buy rating
- MSTR tested the 200-day SMA resistance at $138 but failed to close above it; downside support sits at $126
Strategy (MSTR) stock climbed 5.1% on September 11, reaching an intraday high of $137 before closing at $130. The move came after August CPI data showed a 0.33% month-over-month rise in core inflation, which pushed Fed rate hike odds to 79% and injected fresh volatility into crypto-linked stocks.
Bitcoin was trading near $77,000 heading into the CPI release, under pressure from rising oil prices and elevated Treasury yields. The softer-than-feared headline number provided some relief to risk assets, giving MSTR a lift well beyond what the broader indices delivered. The S&P 500 gained 0.9%, the Dow 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%.
MSTR’s 52-week range sits between $81.81 and $365.21, and the stock remains well below its peak.
STRC Preferred Stock Nears Par Value
A key driver of the bullish sentiment around MSTR right now is the recovery in its STRC preferred stock. STRC closed at $98.64 on September 11, its highest level since June 1. That puts it just $1.36 below its par value of $100, after a 38% rally from its record low of $71 set on June 26.
Strategy has been actively buying back STRC, spending $176 million most recently and $811.5 million in total since the buyback program launched in July. The company is funding these repurchases by selling MSTR stock and Bitcoin.
One analyst on X laid out the bull case clearly: if STRC recovers to par or above, Strategy gains access to a larger preferred equity fundraising mechanism. That would let the company raise more capital to buy more Bitcoin, potentially pushing MSTR’s market-to-NAV multiple higher.
What Analysts Are Saying
The analyst pegged MSTR’s current mNAV at 1.11x and argued a move to 1.5x mNAV, which he considers conservative, would put the stock around $185 based on current NAV figures. That estimate does not factor in additional Bitcoin purchases that a functioning STRC capital machine could enable.
Canaccord Genuity separately raised its price target on MSTR from $175 to $179, citing optimism around a Bitcoin price recovery. The firm kept its Buy rating in place.
On the balance sheet side, Strategy announced on September 8 that it doubled its digital credit securities repurchase authorization to $2 billion. The company also reported a $5.1 billion USD reserve and $1 billion in MSTR stock buyback capacity.
Strategy’s unrealized profit on its Bitcoin holdings has dropped to $1.3 billion following the recent BTC price decline.
On the technical side, MSTR tested resistance at its 200-day SMA of $138 on September 11 but failed to close above it. The Chaikin Money Flow reading of 0.17 points to buying pressure still outweighing selling. If buying fades, the 100-day SMA at $126 is the next support level. A close below $130 would open the door to the August 21 low of $117.
Other crypto stocks saw modest gains. Coinbase (COIN) rose 1.73% and Circle (CRCL) gained 0.31% on the day.
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