TLDR
- Coinbase (COIN) stock closed Wednesday near $162, down 54% over the past 12 months.
- Analysts expect a Q3 loss of 23 cents per share on $1.21 billion in revenue, after the close Thursday.
- Rosenblatt reiterated a Buy rating and $200 price target, and raised its revenue estimate to $1.226 billion.
- Nearly half of expected Q3 revenue should come from subscriptions and services, including USDC income.
- The Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate in September, a setback for the company.
Coinbase (COIN) stock closed Wednesday at about $162. That is a 54% drop over the past 12 months, and the stock is up about 1% in Thursday’s early moves.
The crypto exchange reports third-quarter results after the close on Thursday. Wall Street is bracing for a rough set of numbers.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect a loss of 23 cents per share. They also expect $1.21 billion in revenue.
A year ago, Coinbase posted a $1.50 per-share profit and $1.87 billion in revenue. That makes for a tough comparison.
Trading volume is a big part of the story. Analysts expect $137 billion for the quarter, less than half of last year’s level.
The crypto market has not helped. Bitcoin traded near $80,400 on Wednesday, down from more than $122,000 last October.
What Analysts Are Watching
Rosenblatt is more upbeat than most. The firm kept its Buy rating and $200 price target ahead of the report.
It raised its revenue estimate to $1.226 billion from $1.134 billion. That sits above the consensus of $1.206 billion.
Rosenblatt now expects trading volume to fall 4% from the prior quarter. Its earlier estimate was a 20% drop, and the global exchange market fell about 7%.
The firm also lifted its estimates for staking and fee income. It sees growth from derivatives and prediction markets too.
Coinbase has talked for years about relying less on trading. Analysts expect nearly half of Q3 revenue to come from subscriptions and services.
That segment includes income from the USDC stablecoin, which Coinbase helped launch. The company also earns money from stock and fund trading, prediction markets and “agentic” wallets that let AI agents trade and make payments.
Some analysts think fees could come under pressure. Traditional Wall Street firms are moving into crypto.
Regulation and Street Targets
Coinbase also took a regulatory hit in the quarter. It was one of the biggest backers of the Clarity Act, which would have moved most crypto trading away from securities regulators.
The bill failed to advance in the Senate in September. Crypto firms still benefit from a hands-off approach under the Trump administration.
That could change in January if Democrats win control of the House or Senate in next week’s midterm elections. Scrutiny of crypto activity would likely rise.
The stock fell 15% over the past month. The S&P 500 gained 1% and Bitcoin slipped 4% in that time.
Price targets on the Street range from $110 to $300. Compass Point lifted its target to $187 with a Neutral rating, and said fourth-quarter guidance might come in slightly above consensus.
Coinbase reports after the close on Thursday, October 29.
Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. KnockoutStocks gives you the AI insights, market intelligence, and stock research you need to spot opportunities, cut through the noise, and make smarter investment decisions — all in one powerful platform.
Sign up today and get 50% OFF full access to our premium stock picks.
Simply use coupon code SPECIAL50 at checkout to claim your exclusive discount.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
