TLDR
- Intel (INTC) stock sits at $95.53, down 32% from its June 22 record high but up 159% year to date.
- Analysts expect third-quarter adjusted earnings of 39 to 41 cents a share, up from 23 cents a year ago.
- Revenue is forecast at about $16.4 billion to $16.5 billion, up roughly 20% from last year.
- Options pricing points to a move of up to 8% by the end of the week, or a range of about $88 to $103.
- BofA expects a beat and a raised outlook, while UBS stays Neutral and trimmed its price target to $103.
Intel (INTC) stock closed at $95.53 ahead of its third-quarter earnings report, which lands after the closing bell on Thursday. The stock has dropped 32% from its June 22 record high. It is still up about 159% since the start of the year.
Options traders see a big move coming. Current pricing suggests a swing of up to about 8% by the end of the week. That could push the stock as high as $103 or drag it below $88.
Analysts have set the bar for the quarter. FactSet polling points to adjusted earnings of 41 cents a share, up from 23 cents a year ago. Visible Alpha is a bit lower at 39 cents.
Revenue is expected to grow about 20% to 21% from last year. FactSet puts the figure at $16.5 billion, while Visible Alpha has it at $16.41 billion. Growth in the data-center and AI segment is the main driver.
What Wall Street Expects
BofA Securities thinks Intel will top estimates and raise its guidance. Analyst Vivek Arya says average selling prices for central processing units, or CPUs, are rising. BofA rates the stock a Buy with a $145 price target.
Arya says Intel should gain from steady demand for CPUs that power AI servers. An improving supply chain should help too. The view is that CPUs are better suited to some AI tasks than graphics processing units, which dominate model training.
Not everyone is as upbeat. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri kept a Neutral rating and cut his price target to $103 from $112. He still said the setup on the top line “remains quite strong.”
BofA did flag one worry. Investors may question whether AI demand can support both higher unit sales and higher selling prices over time. That could color how the market reads the results.
Analysts are split overall. Of the 10 tracked by Visible Alpha, four rate Intel a buy and five are neutral. One recommends selling. The average price target of $117 implies about 22% upside from Wednesday’s close.
Foundry and Musk in Focus
The earnings numbers are only part of the story. Intel is trying to kick-start its foundry business and win chip manufacturing customers. That puts it in competition with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).
Arcuri expects more progress on Intel’s EMIB-T chip packaging and its 14A manufacturing process. Both are seen as key to the foundry’s competitiveness. Investors will be listening for updates.
Elon Musk may come up on the call as well. Intel is working with Tesla and SpaceX on the Terafab AI chip venture. Last week, Musk floated what he called “significant potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication.”
Earlier this month, Intel stock slid after Musk signaled he was in talks with TSMC to help run Terafab. Worries about client spending and Intel’s fundraising plans have also weighed on the stock in recent months.
Intel stock was up about 1.9% on Thursday, ahead of the report. The company reports after the close today.
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