TLDR
- Arthur Hayes says share unlocks at SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could weigh on markets.
- He estimates 8.6 billion more SpaceX shares could become tradable by June 2027.
- He projects an 83% rise in Anthropic’s available share supply by that date.
- He links weaker AI stocks to tighter credit and less dollar liquidity for Bitcoin.
- He still expects central banks to step in later, which he sees as a long-term positive for Bitcoin.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has published a new warning about artificial intelligence companies and what their share sales could mean for crypto. His November 5 newsletter is titled “D is for Dilution.” It focuses on SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI.
Arthur Hayes: AI Giants’ Equity Dilution May Pressure Stock Prices, Bearish for Bitcoin in the Short Term, Bullish if Central Banks Step In Long Term
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest article “D is for Dilution” that large-scale share unlocks and equity dilution… pic.twitter.com/TODQhGMJkG
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 5, 2026
Hayes says these companies need huge amounts of money for data centers, chips and computing power. That need makes them depend on outside financing. He believes problems in that financing could spread to other markets.
How Hayes Links Share Unlocks to a Zcash Lesson
Hayes compares today’s AI boom to the early days of Zcash, which launched in October 2016. The token drew heavy speculation at first. Its circulating supply then grew quickly, and that put pressure on its price.
He says newly listed AI companies could face the same pattern. Insiders often hold restricted shares that later become free to sell. When those shares unlock, more stock can reach the market at once.
SpaceX completed its initial public offering in June 2026 at $135 per share. Hayes says its freely tradable share supply has risen about 50% since then. He adds that the share price has stayed largely flat.
He estimates that another 8.6 billion SpaceX shares could become available by June 2027. That would raise the tradable supply by about 50% again.
Anthropic is a bigger concern for Hayes. He read the company’s IPO documents and estimates that early public investors could see an 83% rise in available shares by June 2027. He says holding a hypothetical $1.5 trillion valuation would need a lot of new buyers to absorb any selling.
He says OpenAI could face a similar situation if it goes public.
Hayes’s figures are estimates, and there are limits to what they show. Shares becoming tradable are not the same as new shares being issued. Insider unlocks add to the supply that could be sold. True dilution happens when new shares reduce what existing owners hold.
Unlocked shares also do not have to be sold. Hayes still believes the amount of possible selling could be more than demand can handle if excitement about AI valuations fades.
Why Weaker AI Stocks Could Reach Bitcoin Through Credit
Hayes says the link to crypto runs through credit markets and dollar liquidity. AI firms use debt as well as stock sales to pay for their growth. Being public can make it easier to reach institutional lenders.
If share prices fall, lenders may lose confidence. They could then ask for higher yields before funding more expansion. Hayes says this could spread to chip makers, cloud computing firms and other businesses that support AI.
Tighter credit could slow lending and limit growth in US commercial bank balance sheets. Hayes argues that growing balance sheets help create the dollar liquidity that supports risk assets like Bitcoin. Less credit creation could take away some of that support.
He also pointed to a recent weekly drop in US banking system assets. One week of data does not prove a lasting trend. His firm, Maelstrom, plans to stay cautious until liquidity conditions improve.
Hayes still has a longer-term bullish view. He says a severe AI-linked downturn could push central banks to add liquidity. That step could help Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies later on. He notes that central bank action is not guaranteed and may not be enough to offset wider financial stress.
For Bitcoin holders, Hayes says the key signals to watch are AI share unlocks, corporate credit spreads, bank lending growth and Federal Reserve policy. In his view, these matter more than technology stock prices alone.
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