TLDR
- CIFR fell nearly 19% to about $6.60 on Nov. 4 after Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor’s race.
- Hinojosa wants a pause on new data centers until lawmakers set community protections.
- Cipher reported its first HPC lease revenue in Q3 results, but total sales missed estimates.
- Analysts trimmed price targets, though several kept Buy-type ratings.
- Riot disclosed a $28 billion Corsicana lease the same week.
Cipher Digital (CIFR) stock fell nearly 19% to around $6.60 on Nov. 4. The drop came one day after Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor’s race.
By midday, the price had slipped to $6.465, down 20.38%. It touched a low of $6.18 during the session.
Hinojosa beat Republican incumbent Greg Abbott. The Associated Press called the race for her.
She campaigned for an immediate moratorium on new data centers. It would last until lawmakers set up community protections.
She also urged Abbott to issue an executive order and call a special session to end tax incentives for the industry. Her plan targets new builds, not existing bitcoin mining sites.
Abbott had already acted on his own. A Sept. 21 directive told state environmental regulators to halt data center permits pending audits.
A Whiplash Day for CIFR
The selloff followed a bounce on Tuesday. Trader Urkel said CIFR was up about 18% before it fell by a similar amount.
“Some of these roller-coaster moves are insane,” he wrote. Another trader, The Great Mattsby, said he plans to buy at $5.91.
Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co said the vote will “slow the pace” of data center buildouts nationwide. Wells Fargo’s Ohsung Kwon had earlier flagged a Democratic Texas win as a possible jolt for AI stocks.
What Cipher Reported Before the Drop
Cipher posted third-quarter revenue of $26.7 million on Nov. 2. Analysts expected $38.47 million, and sales fell 62.8% from a year earlier.
This morning, Cipher released its Third Quarter 2026 Business Update. Highlights from the quarter included:
· Recognized first HPC lease revenue following rent commencement at Black Pearl
· Expanded the Barber Lake lease to a 20-year term, increasing total contracted revenue at… pic.twitter.com/tHiWQhE9uH— Cipher Digital (@CipherInc) November 2, 2026
The quarter included the first HPC lease revenue, $5.852 million from Black Pearl. Bitcoin mining brought in $20.849 million, down from $71.707 million.
The company logged a $71.9 million operating loss. A $127.2 million warrant gain pushed net income to $31.6 million.
Cipher also won a conditional base load classification for 1 GW at Colchis through ERCOT’s Batch Zero process. Another 1.6 GW received conditional studied load classifications.
The Barber Lake lease now runs 20 years, with about $9.1 billion in contracted revenue. Cipher put its pipeline at 5.9 GW and began developing gas pipelines for up to 2.5 GW of on-site power.
Riot disclosed a 15-year, $28 billion lease at its Corsicana campus with an unnamed AI lab. The deal covers 910 MW, with average annual rent of $1.8 billion.
Analysts trimmed targets after the report. Wells Fargo’s Eric Luebchow kept Overweight but cut his target from $25 to $15, while Needham and Cantor Fitzgerald moved to $15 and Rosenblatt to $19.
The average analyst target is $26.61. At last check, Benzinga showed CIFR down 20.69% at $6.43, close to its 52-week low of $6.62.
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