TLDR
- European gas prices surged over 40% in September, hitting their highest level since early 2023
- Iranian missile strikes damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, cutting about 17% of its export capacity
- The Strait of Hormuz, handling roughly 20% of global LNG flows, faces severe shipping disruptions
- EU gas storage sits at just 67% capacity, below the seasonal average, ahead of winter
- The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, citing rising energy costs
European natural gas prices have climbed to their highest point since early 2023, driven by disruptions to LNG shipments from the Middle East. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract gained over 40% in September alone, touching 79.64 euros per megawatt-hour before pulling back slightly on Friday.
Prices eased around 2.5% on Friday as traders locked in profits, but the Dutch benchmark still posted a 12.1% weekly gain. That marks a fifth straight week of gains. The UK equivalent contract also rose 12.6% for the week.
The core problem is Qatar. The world’s second-largest LNG exporter suffered serious damage to its Ras Laffan facility after Iranian missile strikes in March. Around 17% of its LNG export capacity was knocked out. QatarEnergy extended force majeure on some contracted supplies into early November.
Even if the situation stabilizes, Qatar’s output is not expected to recover quickly. Analysts say production could take weeks to ramp up, and damage to the Ras Laffan facility may keep output below normal for three to five years.
BREAKING: Iran has just struck 2 vessels at the same time with 4 missiles in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, while transiting under US escort, with one vessel on fire and the status of the second unknown, per UKMTO.
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) September 10, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz is adding further pressure. U.S. forces and Iran have engaged in direct military exchanges, restricting tanker traffic through the waterway. The strait handles roughly 20% of global LNG flows.
U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers and an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan escalated tensions through the week. Iran-aligned Houthi militants also seized the Yemeni port of Mocha, pushing maritime risk further into the Red Sea.
Crude oil is holding above $108 a barrel. That has pushed European utilities to compete aggressively with Asian buyers for replacement cargoes from the Atlantic basin.
Low Storage Levels Raise Winter Supply Concerns
European gas storage is only about 67% full, trailing the five-year seasonal average. Replenishment through August and early September was held back by summer heatwaves, Norwegian pipeline maintenance, and unfavorable pricing conditions for storage injections.
Analysts at Commerzbank say the global gas market is more strained than the oil market right now. Unlike oil, LNG has no alternative export routes if the Strait of Hormuz stays restricted.
If colder weather boosts Asian heating demand this winter, competition for available cargoes could intensify further. Europe would face a tighter squeeze with fewer options to fill the gap.
The strain on energy markets fed directly into central bank policy. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday, its second hike of the year. The ECB pointed to cost-push inflation from rising energy prices as a key driver.
Gas prices remain elevated with winter approaching and no quick fix in sight for the supply disruptions.
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