TLDR
- Microsoft (MSFT) stock rose 1.54% Tuesday and is up 9% this year ahead of Wednesday’s fiscal first-quarter report.
- Options pricing implies a move of about 5% either way, or a range of $500 to $549 from Friday’s close.
- Analysts expect revenue of $90.64 billion, up about 17%, and adjusted earnings of $4.73 per share.
- Intelligent Cloud revenue is forecast to jump 33% to $41.09 billion.
- All 13 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha rate the stock a buy, with a mean price target of $614.
Microsoft (MSFT) stock rose 1.54% on Tuesday ahead of its fiscal first-quarter report due Wednesday after the close. The stock is up 9% so far this year.
Options traders are pricing in a move of about 5% in either direction by the end of the week. From Friday’s close, that puts the stock between $500 and $549.
The top of that range sits close to the record high set earlier this month. The bottom would erase a chunk of the recent run.
What Wall Street Expects
Analysts expect revenue of $90.64 billion, up about 17% from a year ago. That is a step down from the 18.4% growth in the same quarter last year.
Intelligent Cloud revenue is forecast to jump 33% to $41.09 billion. Adjusted earnings are expected at $4.73 per share, up from $4.13 a year ago.
Those figures come from Visible Alpha estimates. Analysts have mostly held their numbers steady over the past 30 days.
That suggests few people are expecting a surprise either way. Then again, Microsoft has a habit of topping Wall Street’s expectations.
Last quarter, Microsoft reported revenue of $90.01 billion, up 17.7% from a year earlier. It also beat analysts’ earnings estimates.
The stock jumped 15% in a single session in July after that report. Better-than-expected cloud revenue did much of the heavy lifting.
Analyst Views
Morgan Stanley analysts said sentiment on Microsoft has “materially improved” after last quarter’s results. They pointed to early FY27 guidance showing durable strength across the core growth businesses.
The firm believes the valuation is still “reasonable relative to growth.” It kept its $600 price target.
Every one of the 13 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha recommends buying the stock. Nobody on that list is sitting on the fence.
Their mean price target of $614 implies about 17% upside from Friday’s close. Investors will also watch demand for Azure and the Copilot AI assistant, which have fueled this year’s optimism.
Alphabet and Amazon also report this week, giving investors more data on cloud and AI demand. Microsoft goes first on Wednesday after the close, with consensus at $90.64 billion in revenue and $4.73 per share.
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