TLDR
- SoftBank stock fell 12% in Tokyo after a report that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027
- SoftBank’s total commitment to OpenAI is expected to reach roughly $65 billion by October
- The OpenAI IPO delay could maintain the “conglomerate discount” weighing on SoftBank’s valuation
- SoftBank carries a $40 billion bridge loan tied to its OpenAI investment, due for repayment in March 2027
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are advising OpenAI on a potential listing, which could still happen as early as fall 2026
SoftBank Group stock dropped 12% in Tokyo trading on Friday — its biggest intraday fall in more than three months — after the New York Times reported that OpenAI may push its IPO back to 2027.
Bankers advising OpenAI reportedly flagged that volatility in tech stocks could weaken investor demand for an offering at a $1 trillion valuation. That single headline was enough to wipe out a chunk of gains SoftBank had built on the back of OpenAI euphoria.
By October, SoftBank’s total investment commitment to OpenAI is expected to reach approximately $65 billion. The fair value of that stake hit $79.6 billion at year-end, against a cumulative cost of $34.6 billion.
The prospect of a big OpenAI payday had driven SoftBank to all-time highs, briefly pushing its market cap above Toyota’s last month. Friday’s drop snapped that momentum hard.
Hiroki Takei, a strategist at Resona Holdings, explained why an IPO matters so much to SoftBank’s valuation. SoftBank holds hundreds of private companies with no public price, making the portfolio notoriously difficult for investors to value.
A listed OpenAI would act as a public benchmark for one of SoftBank’s biggest positions and could reduce the conglomerate discount that has long weighed on the stock. “News of an IPO delay naturally dampens those expectations,” Takei said.
What’s at Stake Financially
SoftBank’s financial picture here is complex. The company took on a $40 billion bridge loan to fund its OpenAI commitments, with repayment due in March 2027. An attempt to refinance at least $6 billion of that through a margin loan collateralized by its OpenAI stake stalled earlier this month, with lenders citing difficulty pricing a private asset.
Without a public listing, that refinancing problem doesn’t get easier.
The Vision Fund arm posted roughly $46 billion in investment gains over the 12 months through March 31. Almost all of it came from the rising valuation on its OpenAI holdings.
That concentration cuts both ways — and Friday’s reaction showed investors are well aware of it.
IPO Timeline Still Possible in 2026
OpenAI has already filed confidential listing documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are advising on a potential offering that could still happen as early as fall 2026.
The Sam Altman-led company is working through the mechanics of going public. Whether markets cooperate is another question.
Friday’s selloff in SoftBank came alongside a broader retreat in Asian and European tech stocks. Investors were also digesting Apple’s announcement of price increases on some MacBook and iPad products, adding to the cautious tone across the sector.
SoftBank’s 12% drop on Friday put the stock on track for one of its worst single-day moves of the year.
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