TLDR
- SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen said the company has gained greater conviction it can hit a $100B annual revenue run rate
- A new AI computing deal worth $1.11B per month starting December adds roughly $13B in annualized revenue
- SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81B, up 91.9% year over year, beating EPS estimates by $0.17
- The stock opened at $148.18 on Friday, with an analyst average price target of $221.06 and a “Moderate Buy” consensus
- Risks include a valuation near 98 times sales, lockup expirations adding share-supply pressure, and uncertainty around AI data center expansion
SpaceX (SPCX) stock opened at $148.18 on Friday, up 0.4%, as CFO Bret Johnsen told attendees at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference that the company now has “even more conviction” it can reach a $100B annual revenue run rate.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The catalyst? A new AI computing contract worth $1.11B per month, beginning in December, with an undisclosed customer. That single deal adds roughly $13B in annualized revenue to the pipeline.
To hit the $100B annual run rate, SpaceX needs to generate around $8.3B per month. The company currently brings in about $2.6B a month based on Q2 figures. That means monthly revenue would need to more than triple from where it stands today.
The math is aggressive, but the deal flow is stacking up. SpaceX already has a $6.7B cloud-services agreement ramping in October, and its existing AI compute contracts with Google (GOOG) and Anthropic (ANTHRO) are generating more than $2B a month combined.
Johnsen noted that AI infrastructure spending can pay back in under a year given the contracts SpaceX has secured to lease computing capacity.
AI Computing Expansion
On the infrastructure side, SpaceX plans to have just over 2 gigawatts of terrestrial AI computing capacity deployed by end of 2026, with a target of 5 to 10 GW in 2027. Johnsen flagged power availability as a growing constraint for ground-based AI infrastructure, which is why the company is exploring orbital computing as a longer-term option.
Q2 earnings showed the company beating on both top and bottom lines. Revenue came in at $7.81B, up 91.9% year over year. EPS was a loss of $0.09, beating the analyst consensus loss estimate of $0.26 by $0.17.
Analyst sentiment leans positive overall. The stock carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average price target of $221.06. Two analysts rate it a Strong Buy, 26 have issued Buy ratings, eight have a Hold, and seven have a Sell.
Analyst Views and Risks
Recent coverage includes a Buy rating and $220 price target from Pivotal Research, while HSBC initiated with a Hold and a $115 target. TD Cowen and Roth Capital both carry Buy ratings.
On the risk side, the stock trades at roughly 98 times sales, a valuation that has tempered some enthusiasm. Recent lockup expirations have also made hundreds of millions of additional shares eligible for sale.
Third Point disclosed acquiring roughly $31 million of SPCX stock following the IPO. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar also bought between $1,001 and $15,000 of SpaceX stock in August through her UBS IRA account.
The $100B run-rate target still hinges on how quickly the current deals ramp. Any delays could keep SpaceX below that annualized pace.
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