TLDR
- XRP traded near $1.29 on Monday and is down about 17% over the past month.
- Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP fell from 351 to 339, and exchange balances rose by about 47 million tokens.
- Analyst Ali Martinez says a sustained break below $1.26 could open the way to $1.11 and $0.98.
- U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded no net flows on October 23.
- The XRP Ledger hit a record 8.24 million non-empty wallets, and Ripple’s Swell conference starts October 27.
XRP traded near $1.29 on Monday as shrinking whale wallets and rising exchange balances renewed worries about another sell-off. The token is down about 17% over the past month.
Santiment data shows wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP fell from 351 to 339. That is 12 fewer wallets in the category.
Analyst Ali Martinez, who posts as Ali Charts, shared the data on October 25. His post warned that XRP will drop to $0.98 if whales keep selling.
XRP WILL DROP TO $0.98 IF WHALES KEEP SELLING
1/5 🧵👇
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 25, 2026
Exchange balances rose from about 11.003 billion to 11.05 billion XRP, an increase of roughly 47 million tokens. At $1.30, that equals about $61.1 million.
Support at $1.26 in focus
Martinez points to a descending channel that has guided XRP since August. He puts its lower boundary at $1.26.
XRP dipped below that level on October 24 but recovered. If support fails on a sustained basis, Martinez sees $1.11 first, then $0.98.
Analyst Dark Defender took a different view in a post on X. He said XRP’s Wave 1 began in November 2024, with Wave 3 targeting $10.1101 and supports at $1.21 and $1.12.
Other analysts named nearby levels. Natasha sees $1.20 as the next support, while EGRAG CRYPTO flagged $1.24.
Technical readings lean toward sellers. The RSI stood at 39.17, and the MACD line was at -0.0344, below its signal line.
Exchange flows and ETF demand
CryptoQuant data showed 6.05 billion XRP entered exchanges in the 30 days to October 19, the highest in seven months. Those gross inflows differ from the smaller rise in balances.
Analyst Darkfost reported that the 90-day average of large XRP withdrawals from Binance fell to $49.7 million, its lowest in five years. He wrote that XRP could lack buying volume without whale support.
In Nov 2024, #XRP set Wave 1 on the left.
White Sub-Waves 1 & 2 & EMA lines match Oct 2024.
Wave 3 is targeting $10.1101.
Supports: $1.21, $1.12 pic.twitter.com/Y16yJ3kJOl
— Dark Defender (@DefendDark) October 25, 2026
U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded no net flows on October 23, after about $3.55 million came in on October 22. Cumulative net inflows remain close to $1.8 billion.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Spot $XRP ETFs pull in $4.26 million this week, flipping back to inflows after their first weekly outflow in 13 weeks. pic.twitter.com/TUJ2E3M2Oj
— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) October 25, 2026
Not all data points lower. Santiment reported a record 8.24 million non-empty XRP Ledger wallets, with 4,772 new addresses in one day.
The firm said a move above resistance with 4,000 or more new wallets daily could support a recovery toward $1.50. Chart resistance sits at $1.35 and $1.40.
XRP traded between $1.26 and $1.31 on Sunday, with daily volume near $1.33 billion. Its market cap is about $82.33 billion, fifth among cryptocurrencies.
Ripple’s Swell conference runs in New York from October 27 to 29. XRP was trading near $1.29 on Monday.
